United States Oil (USO) plunge to their lowest levels in over a year

United States Oil (USO) plunge to their lowest levels in over a year

United States Oil (USO) plunge to their lowest levels in over a year

Oil prices plunged to their lowest levels in over a year on Thursday, deepening a sell-off fueled by concerns about oversupply as stock markets slumped on rising U.S. interest rates.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude ended Thursday’s session down $2.29, or 4.8 percent, at $45.88, the lowest closing price since July 2017. WTI is now down about 24 percent this year.

Brent crude, the international benchmark for oil prices, fell $2.89, or about 5 percent, to $54.35, its weakest settle since mid-September 2017. Brent has shed nearly 19 percent in 2019.

Crude futures staged a rally in the previous session on signs of strong fuel demand in the United States. However, bearish reports out of Asia overnight added to worries on both the supply and demand sides of the oil market ledger.

Crude futures have now fallen more than 35 percent from their 52-week highs in early October. The market is grappling with surging supply from the world’s top three producers — the United States, Russia and Saudi Arabia — at a time when demand for oil is expected to grow less than previously expected.

To prevent a price-crushing glut, OPEC and 10 other producers including Russia agreed earlier this month to remove 1.2 million barrels per day from the market. But the production cuts do not take effect until January, and the announcement has so far done little to stop the collapse in crude prices.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.

The projected upper bound is: 10.50.

The projected lower bound is: 8.69.

The projected closing price is: 9.60.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 2 white candles and 8 black candles for a net of 6 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 15 white candles and 33 black candles for a net of 18 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 9.4735. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a buy 14 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 30.28. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -175.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a buy 14 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

UNTD ST OIL FUND closed down -0.300 at 9.720. Volume was 62% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 11% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
9.810 9.960 9.640 9.720 44,132,564

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 10.56 12.48 13.63
Volatility: 60 49 37
Volume: 38,980,140 34,712,736 23,508,074

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

UNTD ST OIL FUND is currently 28.7% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of USO at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on USO and have had this outlook for the last 45 periods. The security price has set a new 14-period low while our momentum oscillator has not. This is a bullish divergence.

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