United States Oil (USO) output forecast is reduced

United States Oil (USO) output forecast is reduced

United States Oil (USO) output forecast is reduced

Oil prices edged higher on Wednesday, supported by planned cuts to Saudi exports and a reduced forecast for U.S crude output.

International Brent crude oil futures were at $66.93 a barrel at 0039 GMT, up 26 cents, or 0.4 percent, from their last close. Brent touched $67.39 a barrel on Monday, its highest since Feb. 25.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $57.17 per barrel, up 30 cents, or 0.5 percent, from their last settlement.

U.S. crude oil production is expected to grow slower than previously expected in 2019 and average about 12.30 million barrels per day (bpd), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Tuesday.

Saudi Arabia plans to cut its crude oil exports in April to below 7 million barrels per day (bpd), while keeping its output well below 10 million bpd, a Saudi official said on Monday, as the kingdom seeks to drain a supply glut and support oil prices.

On Sunday, Saudi oil minister Khalid al-Falih said it would be too early to change OPEC+ output policy at the group’s meeting in April.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 11.56.

The projected upper bound is: 12.48.

The projected lower bound is: 11.39.

The projected closing price is: 11.94.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 32 white candles and 18 black candles for a net of 14 white candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 76.6081. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 11 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 58.35. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 51 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 82. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 7 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

UNTD ST OIL FUND closed up 0.030 at 11.890. Volume was 47% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 62% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
11.940 12.020 11.850 11.890 16,419,456

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 11.82 11.22 12.99
Volatility: 23 31 39
Volume: 22,225,106 24,899,966 25,356,862

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

UNTD ST OIL FUND is currently 8.5% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is low as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume into USO (mildly bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on USO and have had this outlook for the last 3 periods.

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