United States Oil (USO) OPEC sets new ministerial meeting dates to July 1-2
Oil futures settled modestly lower on Wednesday, giving up the gains they saw in the immediate wake of U.S. government figures that revealed a larger-than-expected drawdown in crude stockpiles, the first in three weeks.
The supply draw “helped ease some of the supply side concerns in the energy market … but U.S. supply data is a secondary influence on the market right now as there are too many other, potentially more important moving pieces and in the market,” Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. This is why we saw the morning rally “fade after the initial pop, and the market notably failed to make new session highs.”
West Texas Intermediate crude for July delivery CLN19, +1.15% fell 14 cents, or 0.3%, to settle at $53.76 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The July contract, which expires at Thursday’s settlement, climbed 3.8% Tuesday to finish at its highest in over a week.
August Brent crude BRNQ19, +1.07% shed 32 cents, or 0.5% to $61.82 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe. It wrapped up Tuesday at $62.14, the highest settlement in a week.
Oil prices showed little reaction after Wednesday’s U.S. Federal Open Market Committee statement. The central bank kept “rates steady, but to scrap the ‘patient’ modifier for future tolerance of economic weakness, was largely expected in our view,” said Stewart Glickman, senior equity analyst at CFRA Research.
“The biggest catalyst for crude oil prices will be driven by fiscal policy—not monetary policy.” he said. “In particular, the ability (or not) of the Trump Administration to strike a trade deal with China will go a long way in determining emerging market GDP in our view and, by extension, emerging market oil demand.”
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 11.95.
The projected upper bound is: 12.01.
The projected lower bound is: 10.56.
The projected closing price is: 11.29.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 23 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 3 black candles.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 75.7576. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 9 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 44.51. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 100.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 8 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
UNTD ST OIL FUND closed up 0.080 at 11.330. Volume was 74% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 61% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
11.140 11.340 11.100 11.330 41,157,460
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 11.04 12.45 12.45
Volatility: 43 38 40
Volume: 30,462,148 26,046,942 26,423,218
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
UNTD ST OIL FUND is currently 9.0% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of USO at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on USO and have had this outlook for the last 32 periods.
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