United States Oil (USO) OPEC output to its lowest in nearly four years

United States Oil (USO) OPEC output to its lowest in nearly four years

United States Oil (USO) OPEC output to its lowest in nearly four years

Oil futures posted a gain on Thursday, buoyed by data showing a fall in February OPEC output to its lowest in nearly four years.

On Wednesday, prices for U.S. benchmark crude oil had finished lower after U.S. government data revealed a hefty weekly climb in domestic crude stockpiles, but global benchmark prices had climbed on the back of ongoing output cuts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.

Gasoline futures, meanwhile, continued their sharp advance to finish at a multimonth high after U.S. data Wednesday showed a drop in U.S. gasoline stockpiles that was more than double market expectations.

West Texas Intermediate crude for April delivery CLJ9, -0.67% tacked on 44 cents, or 0.8%, to settle at $56.66 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. May Brent LCOK9, -0.68% rose 31 cents, or 0.5%, to $66.30 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe.

April gasoline RBJ9, -0.99% added 0.9% at $1.805 a gallon, after a climbing 1.2% Wednesday. It finished at the highest for a most-active contract since Oct. 30, FactSet data show. April heating oil HOJ9, -0.73% settled at $2.013 a gallon, down 0.2%.

OPEC’s crude production from edged down by 60,000 barrels a day to 30.8 million barrels a day in February from a month earlier, according to an S&P Global Platts survey of industry officials, analysts and shipping data. The output level was the lowest since March 2015, when Gabon, Equatorial Guinea and Congo had yet to join OPEC—though at the time, Qatar was still a member, the survey said.

Among the 11 members with quotas under the output cut agreement that began at the start of the year, compliance stood at 79%, with Saudi Arabia slashing output to 10.15 million barrels a day in February—its lowest since May 2018, according to the survey. The output deal had called on OPEC and 10 of its nonmember allies to reduce production for six months by 1.2 million barrels from October levels.

Although OPEC is curbing production, however, U.S. crude supplies have posted gains in six of the past seven weeks and production continues to sit at a record.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 11.56.

The projected upper bound is: 12.47.

The projected lower bound is: 11.23.

The projected closing price is: 11.85.


A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 33 white candles and 17 black candles for a net of 16 white candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 46.2122. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 8 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 56.93. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 48 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 9. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 8 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

UNTD ST OIL FUND closed up 0.060 at 11.810. Volume was 42% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 44% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
11.830 11.860 11.752 11.810 17,770,228

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 11.78 11.09 13.04
Volatility: 30 37 39
Volume: 21,532,996 25,513,620 25,260,610

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


UNTD ST OIL FUND is currently 9.4% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is low as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of USO at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on USO and have had this outlook for the last 0 periods.

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