United States Oil (USO) OPEC oil supply fell in January by the largest amount in two years
Oil prices prices were stable on Monday, largely maintaining gains from the previous session as OPEC-led supply cuts and U.S. sanctions against Venezuela provided the market with support.
International Brent crude oil futures were at $62.76 per barrel at 0507 GMT on Monday, 1 cent above their last close. Brent rose by more than 3 percent in the previous session to their highest close since Nov. 21.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures were at $55.20 per barrel, down 6 cents from their last settlement. WTI settled 2.73 percent higher in the last session at its highest close since Nov. 19.
Output declines from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) as they make good on their pact to curb a supply overhang were compounded by falling U.S. oil rig counts and sanctions on Venezuelan oil sales.
U.S. President Donald Trump last week said he would meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping, perhaps twice, in the coming weeks to try to seal a comprehensive trade deal with Beijing, but acknowledged it was not yet clear whether a deal could be reached.
Overall, Fitch Solutions said on Monday oil markets had a “fundamentally bullish outlook due mainly to the supply cuts led by OPEC as well as increasing oil demand despite the slowdown in economic growth.”
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.
The projected upper bound is: 12.54.
The projected lower bound is: 10.70.
The projected closing price is: 11.62.
A big white candle occurred. This is generally considered bullish, as prices closed significantly higher than they opened. If the candle appears when prices are “low,” it may be the first sign of a bottom. If it occurs when prices are rebounding off of a support area (e.g., a moving average, trendline, or retracement level), the long white candle adds credibility to the support. Similarly, if the candle appears during a breakout above a resistance area, the long white candle adds credibility to the breakout.
During the past 10 bars, there have been 8 white candles and 2 black candles for a net of 6 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 27 white candles and 22 black candles for a net of 5 white candles.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 80.9524. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a sell 8 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 62.26. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 25 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 160.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 22 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
UNTD ST OIL FUND closed up 0.280 at 11.630. Volume was 40% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 41% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
11.400 11.690 11.390 11.630 18,899,820
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 11.24 10.73 13.32
Volatility: 33 54 39
Volume: 26,521,770 34,845,052 25,071,660
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
UNTD ST OIL FUND is currently 12.7% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is low as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume into USO (mildly bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on USO and have had this outlook for the last 17 periods.
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