United States Oil (USO) ongoing concerns about a potential glut in global supplies
U.S. oil futures dropped Tuesday, with ongoing concerns about a potential glut in global supplies pushing prices to their lowest finish since October of last year. Sharp declines in U.S. benchmark stock indexes contributed to expectations of a weaker economy and a slowdown in energy demand.
President Donald Trump, meanwhile, said Tuesday the U.S. remains a “steadfast partner” with the Saudis, despite tensions linked to the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, easing the potential of a disruption to oil supplies from Saudi Arabia. January WTI oil CLF9, +1.52% lost $3.77, or 6.6%, to $53.43 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 13.35.
The projected upper bound is: 12.01.
The projected lower bound is: 10.39.
The projected closing price is: 11.20.
A big black candle occurred. This is bearish, as prices closed significantly lower than they opened. If the candle appears when prices are “high,” it may be the first sign of a top. If it occurs when prices are confronting an overhead resistance area (e.g., a moving average, trendline, or price resistance level), the long black candle adds credibility to the resistance. Similarly, if the candle appears as prices break below a support area, the long black candle confirms the failure of the support area.
During the past 10 bars, there have been 2 white candles and 8 black candles for a net of 6 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 18 white candles and 29 black candles for a net of 11 black candles.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 32.3761. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 19.79. This is where it usually bottoms. The RSI usually forms tops and bottoms before the underlying security. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 33 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -131.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 29 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
UNTD ST OIL FUND closed down -0.870 at 11.270. Volume was 211% above average (trending) and Bollinger Bands were 109% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
11.830 11.900 11.163 11.270 72,177,728
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 12.22 14.27 13.79
Volatility: 56 38 33
Volume: 43,592,372 26,685,138 21,802,458
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
UNTD ST OIL FUND is currently 18.3% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume out of USO (mildly bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on USO and have had this outlook for the last 25 periods. Our momentum oscillator is currently indicating that USO is currently in an oversold condition. The security price has set a new 14-period low while our momentum oscillator has not. This is a bullish divergence.
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