United States Oil (USO) officially entering a bear market
Oil prices sank on Tuesday, with U.S. benchmark crude settling at its lowest year-to-date, stretching its record streak of losses to a 12th session, and global benchmark crude officially entering a bear market.
Natural-gas futures, meanwhile, jumped by more than 8%, to settle at their highest level in nearly four years as the heating fuel continued to soar on the back of expectations for strong winter demand. The move comes a day after futures prices settled at an almost two-year high.
The Energy Information Administration on Tuesday said it forecasts a rise in oil output from seven major U.S. shale plays of 113,000 barrels a day in December to 7.944 million barrels a day. while the International Energy Agency’s monthly oil report comes out Wednesday.
Weekly petroleum supply data from the EIA will be released Thursday, a day later than usual due to Monday’s Veterans Day holiday. Analysts polled by S&P Global Platts expect the government agency to report a rise of 2.3 million barrels in crude stockpiles for the week ended Nov. 9. That would mark an eighth straight weekly climb.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 13.78.
The projected upper bound is: 12.38.
The projected lower bound is: 10.89.
The projected closing price is: 11.63.
A big black candle occurred. This is bearish, as prices closed significantly lower than they opened. If the candle appears when prices are “high,” it may be the first sign of a top. If it occurs when prices are confronting an overhead resistance area (e.g., a moving average, trendline, or price resistance level), the long black candle adds credibility to the resistance. Similarly, if the candle appears as prices break below a support area, the long black candle confirms the failure of the support area.
During the past 10 bars, there have been 1 white candles and 9 black candles for a net of 8 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 19 white candles and 28 black candles for a net of 9 black candles.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 6.6306. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a buy 12 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 14.38. This is where it usually bottoms. The RSI usually forms tops and bottoms before the underlying security. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 28 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -177.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a buy 12 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 24 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
UNTD ST OIL FUND closed down -0.790 at 11.690. Volume was 286% above average (trending) and Bollinger Bands were 93% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
12.420 12.480 11.615 11.690 84,955,728
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 12.98 14.52 13.82
Volatility: 32 34 32
Volume: 35,006,284 23,336,718 21,265,078
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
UNTD ST OIL FUND is currently 15.4% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect very strong flows of volume out of USO (bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on USO and have had this outlook for the last 20 periods. Our momentum oscillator is currently indicating that USO is currently in an oversold condition.
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