United States Oil (USO) market players looked ahead to the release of fresh weekly data

United States Oil (USO) market players looked ahead to the release of fresh weekly data

United States Oil (USO) market players looked ahead to the release of fresh weekly data

Oil prices rebounded from the prior day’s losses on Wednesday, as market players looked ahead to the release of fresh weekly data on U.S. commercial crude inventories.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures for March delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange tacked on 57 cents, or around 1.1%, to $53.58 a barrel by 8:20AM ET (13:20 GMT), after losing $1.03, or 1.9%, a day earlier.

Elsewhere, Brent oil for March delivery on the ICE (NYSE:ICE) Futures Exchange in London rose 74 cents, or about 1.2%, to $62.25 a barrel. The global benchmark lost $1.24, or nearly 2%, on Tuesday.

The American Petroleum Institute is due to release its weekly report for the week ended Jan. 18 at 4:30PM ET (21:30 GMT), amid expectations of a drop of about 435,000 barrels.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly report will be released on Thursday.

The reports come out one day later than usual due to the Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday on Monday.

After ending 2018 in free-fall, oil is off to its best start for a year since 2001, gaining about 18% since the start of January.

Overall, the recent advance for the energy complex has been powered by evidence of a cut in output from the world’s big exporters, notably Saudia Arabia, aimed at preventing a new glut on world markets.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

The projected upper bound is: 11.97.

The projected lower bound is: 10.05.

The projected closing price is: 11.01.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 7 white candles and 3 black candles for a net of 4 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 22 white candles and 27 black candles for a net of 5 black candles.

An engulfing bearish line occurred (where a black candle’s real body completely contains the previous white candle’s real body). The engulfing bearish pattern is bearish during an uptrend (which appears to be the case with UNTD ST OIL FUND). It then signifies that the momentum may be shifting from the bulls to the bears.

If the engulfing bearish pattern occurs during a downtrend, it may be a last engulfing bottom which indicates a bullish reversal. The test to see if this is the case is if the next candle closes above the bottom the current (black) candle’s real body.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 67.5258. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 54.91. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 18 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 57. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 6 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 15 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

UNTD ST OIL FUND closed down -0.070 at 11.050. Volume was 6% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 10% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
11.170 11.190 10.890 11.050 29,044,810

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 11.03 10.87 13.39
Volatility: 42 56 39
Volume: 32,922,440 37,739,872 24,866,356

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

UNTD ST OIL FUND is currently 17.5% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of USO at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on USO and have had this outlook for the last 10 periods.

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