United States Oil (USO) market is view as overpriced
U.S. oil futures dropped Thursday to their lowest finish in a month, as record U.S. crude production and rising domestic supplies outweighed concerns over the potential for tighter global supplies in the wake of the expiration of U.S. waivers on Iranian oil sanctions. “The market clearly is not factoring in outside geopolitical tensions,” said Scott Gecas, chief market strategist at Walsh Trading.
“With the U.S. ramping up production and no threat to supply, the market is view as overpriced.” June WTI oil CLM9, -0.15% lost $1.79, or 2.8%, to settle at $61.81 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. That was the lowest settlement for front-month contract since April 1, FactSet data show.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
The projected upper bound is: 13.36.
The projected lower bound is: 12.32.
The projected closing price is: 12.84.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 22 white candles and 27 black candles for a net of 5 black candles.
A falling window occurred (where the bottom of the previous shadow is above the top of the current shadow). This usually implies a continuation of a bearish trend. There have been 5 falling windows in the last 50 candles–this makes the current falling window even more bearish. The two candles preceding the falling window were black, which makes this pattern even more bearish.
Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 30.9677. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 44.07. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -179.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
UNTD ST OIL FUND closed down -0.400 at 12.820. Volume was 79% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 39% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
12.920 12.940 12.690 12.820 42,308,912
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 13.36 12.61 12.81
Volatility: 33 26 37
Volume: 23,431,054 20,787,134 25,018,594
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
UNTD ST OIL FUND gapped down today (bearish) on normal volume. Possibility of a Runaway Gap which usually signifies a continuation of the trend. Four types of price gaps exist – Common, Breakaway, Runaway, and Exhaustion. Gaps acts as support/resistance.
UNTD ST OIL FUND is currently 0.1% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of USO at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on USO and have had this outlook for the last 39 periods.
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