United States Oil (USO) marginally higher during mid-morning trade in Asia Monday

United States Oil (USO) marginally higher during mid-morning trade in Asia Monday

United States Oil (USO) marginally higher during mid-morning trade in Asia Monday

This oil market is filled with a variety of bearish factors: rising U.S. production, rising Saudi production, an emerging U.S.-China trade war, a rising dollar, potential tapping of the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, a Brazil oil industry that is stronger than being reported, and a reopening of Libyan ports – just to name a few.

These stand against some bullish factors such as new sanctions on Iran and the latest flavor of the week scare: the International Maritime Organization’s move to cut sulfur in marine fuels starting in 2020. For reference, the global shipping fleet’s use of high sulfur fuel oil now accounts for ~4% of the world’s total oil demand, and don’t underestimate the ability of clean LNG to fill the void or the ability of refineries to adapt.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

The projected upper bound is: 15.09.

The projected lower bound is: 13.55.

The projected closing price is: 14.32.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 25 white candles and 24 black candles for a net of 1 white candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 75.5245. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 51.75. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 18 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 12. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 6 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 11 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

UNTD ST OIL FUND closed down -0.150 at 14.320. Volume was 27% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 7% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
14.450 14.500 14.192 14.320 15,063,328

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 14.18 14.04 12.75
Volatility: 26 35 28
Volume: 24,871,678 22,127,340 19,092,720

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

UNTD ST OIL FUND is currently 12.3% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of USO at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on USO and have had this outlook for the last 21 periods.

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