United States Oil (USO) makes it to Ukraine in another blow to Moscow

United States Oil (USO) makes it to Ukraine in another blow to Moscow

United States Oil (USO) makes it to Ukraine in another blow to Moscow

U.S. crude exports are gaining traction in Europe as even Ukraine turns into a significant consumer of American barrels at the expense of Russian supplies amid heightened U.S. political pressure on Moscow and problems over contaminated Russian oil.

Ukraine this month received its first ever barrels from the United States, according to Refinitiv Eikon flows data, as the tanker Wisdom Venture unloaded 80,000 tonnes of Bakken crude in Odessa on July 6 for the Kremenchug refinery, the port said.

The oil was sold by BP (BP.L) to Ukrtatnafta, sources said, adding Ukrtatnafta will receive a further similar amount of U.S. crude around July 24, and more purchases were likely in August.

“The Ukrainian oil industry is set to rise from the ashes with its new president (Volodymyr) Zelenskiy, so it’s an obvious new market for the United States, though the price matters,” a trader in a European oil major said.

Ukraine’s oil sector, formerly mostly operated by Russian companies, has struggled since geopolitical tensions between the countries escalated in 2013-2014.

Since then most of the country’s refineries have remained closed and the only oil supplied to Odessa is Azeri Light, sourced by Azerbaijan’s SOCAR. Since January 2019 it has supplied 320,000 tonnes, Refinitiv Eikon flows data shows.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.

The projected upper bound is: 13.35.

The projected lower bound is: 11.72.

The projected closing price is: 12.54.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 3 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 22 white candles and 25 black candles for a net of 3 black candles.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 87.7808. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a sell 8 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 61.61. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 19 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 146.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a sell 8 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 17 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

UNTD ST OIL FUND closed up 0.020 at 12.550. Volume was 30% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 24% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
12.570 12.625 12.480 12.550 17,350,522

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 12.11 12.06 12.27
Volatility: 43 44 41
Volume: 26,903,074 28,694,800 27,380,010

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

UNTD ST OIL FUND is currently 2.3% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume into USO (mildly bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on USO and have had this outlook for the last 11 periods.

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