United States Oil (USO) lower squeezed by speculation of sanctions-hit Iranian crude returning to the market

United States Oil (USO) lower  squeezed by speculation of sanctions-hit Iranian crude returning to the market

United States Oil (USO) lower squeezed by speculation of sanctions-hit Iranian crude returning to the market

Oil prices traded higher on Wednesday after an industry report said U.S. crude stockpiles fell last week by more than twice the amount that analysts in a Reuters poll had forecast.

Brent crude futures rose 51 cents, or 0.6%, to $62.89 a barrel by 0405 GMT, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures were up 54 cents, or 0.9%, to $57.94 a barrel.

Prices had ended lower on Tuesday, squeezed by speculation of sanctions-hit Iranian crude returning to the market following U.S. President Donald Trump’s move to fire national security adviser John Bolton, a noted Iran policy hawk.

But they rebounded after American Petroleum Institute (API) data late on Tuesday showed U.S. crude oil and gasoline stocks fell last week, while distillate stocks built.

The API numbers had U.S. crude inventories down by 7.2 million barrels in the week ended Sept. 6 to 421.9 million, compared with analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll of a decrease of 2.7 million barrels.

Halley said he was expecting a draw down of 4.8 million barrels when official numbers are released by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) later on Wednesday.

Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub fell by 1.4 million barrels, the API said, while refinery crude runs rose by 208,000 barrels per day.

Gasoline stocks fell by 4.5 million barrels, the industry group said, compared with analysts’ expectations of an 847,000-barrel decline in a Reuters poll.

Prices had risen sharply before Bolton’s removal, boosted after Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, Saudi Arabia’s new energy minister, said the kingdom’s oil policy would not change and a deal with other producers to cut output by a combined 1.2 million barrels per day would be maintained.

Iran’s oil exports were slashed by more than 80% due to re-imposed sanctions by the United States after Trump last year exited the 2015 nuclear deal between Tehran and world powers.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

The projected upper bound is: 12.74.

The projected lower bound is: 11.22.

The projected closing price is: 11.98.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 25 white candles and 25 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 82.8523. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a sell 17 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 57.15. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 61 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 136.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 19 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

UNTD ST OIL FUND closed down -0.100 at 11.980. Volume was 11% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 41% narrower than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
12.110 12.225 11.900 11.980 25,565,620
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 11.68 11.69 11.72
Volatility: 40 42 41
Volume: 26,409,502 28,660,400 27,520,834

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

UNTD ST OIL FUND is currently 2.2% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of USO at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on USO and have had this outlook for the last 4 periods.

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