United States Oil (USO) lower demand forecasts
International benchmark Brent crude futures were at $58.40 a barrel by 0638 GMT, down 13 cents, or 0.2%, from their previous settlement.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures were at $54.33 per barrel, down 17 cents, or 0.3%, from their last close.
Both benchmarks fell last week, with Brent losing more than 5% and WTI falling about 2%.
“Oil prices are falling at the start of the trading week due to lower demand forecasts published last week and pessimism about a U.S.-China trade deal,” said Alfonso Esparza, senior market analyst at OANDA in Toronto.
In July, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies including Russia agreed to extend their supply cuts until March 2020 to prop up oil prices.
In a sign of lower production in the United States, the weekly U.S. oil rig count, an early indicator of future output, fell for a sixth week in a row as producers cut spending on new drilling and completions.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 11.85.
The projected upper bound is: 12.08.
The projected lower bound is: 10.46.
The projected closing price is: 11.27.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 23 white candles and 25 black candles for a net of 2 black candles.
A rising window occurred (where the top of the previous shadow is below the bottom of the current shadow). This usually implies a continuation of a bullish trend. There have been 5 rising windows in the last 50 candles–this makes the current rising window even more bullish.
Three white candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 45.3100. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 43.99. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 40 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -50. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 0 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 6 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
UNTD ST OIL FUND closed up 0.320 at 11.280. Volume was 7% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 15% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
11.220 11.380 11.200 11.280 28,973,758
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 11.43 11.60 11.88
Volatility: 50 45 42
Volume: 35,160,256 29,996,466 28,256,322
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
UNTD ST OIL FUND gapped up today (bullish) on normal volume. Possibility of a Runaway Gap which usually signifies a continuation of the trend. Four types of price gaps exist – Common, Breakaway, Runaway, and Exhaustion. Gaps acts as support/resistance.
UNTD ST OIL FUND is currently 5.0% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of USO at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on USO and have had this outlook for the last 7 periods.