United States Oil (USO) lower as trade tensions heightened between the US and China
The heightened tension over US-China tariffs saw the market largely shrugging off analyst expectations of a draw in US crude stocks in American Petroleum Institute and Energy Information Administration data due for release later Tuesday and Wednesday respectively.
US crude stocks were expected to fall 3 million barrels for the week ended September 14 amid strong US exports and refinery runs, according to a survey of analysts by S&P Global Platts.
Gasoline stocks were expected to fall 1.6 million barrels, while the analysts surveyed were mixed on the direction of distillate stocks.
The EIA separately Monday forecast US shale oil output to average 7.59 million b/d in October, rising 79,000 b/d from September and surging almost 1.6 million b/d from October 2017.
Industry sources said that outlook could also contribute to downward pressure on prices going forward.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 14.23.
The projected upper bound is: 15.11.
The projected lower bound is: 13.81.
The projected closing price is: 14.46.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 22 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 4 black candles.
An engulfing bearish line occurred (where a black candle’s real body completely contains the previous white candle’s real body). The engulfing bearish pattern is bearish during an uptrend (which appears to be the case with UNTD ST OIL FUND). It then signifies that the momentum may be shifting from the bulls to the bears.
If the engulfing bearish pattern occurs during a downtrend, it may be a last engulfing bottom which indicates a bullish reversal. The test to see if this is the case is if the next candle closes above the bottom the current (black) candle’s real body.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 40.9931. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 9 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 52.73. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 53 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -2. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
UNTD ST OIL FUND closed down -0.030 at 14.470. Volume was 27% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 34% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
14.610 14.660 14.420 14.470 14,423,260
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 14.47 14.29 13.33
Volatility: 24 29 29
Volume: 14,740,645 19,194,300 19,276,040
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
UNTD ST OIL FUND is currently 8.6% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is low as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of USO at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on USO and have had this outlook for the last 14 periods.
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