United States Oil (USO) investors focus on data from the Energy Information Administration due out today
Brent crude futures were at $62.60 a barrel by 0330 GMT, down 36 cents, or 0.6%. Brent settled up 1.3% on Tuesday.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell 29 cents, or 0.5%, to $56.94 per barrel, having closed up 1.2% in the previous session.
U.S. crude inventories rose by 4.3 million barrels in the week ended Nov. 1 to 440.5 million barrels, according to data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) released on Tuesday. That was nearly triple analysts’ forecast for an increase of 1.5 million barrels.
Official data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) is due later on Wednesday.
“This morning’s price action suggests that Asia is being more circumspect about oil and is concerned that bearish news was ignored entirely overnight,” Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst at OANDA.
However, hopes remain for a breakthrough on trade in talks between the United States and China, the world’s two biggest oil consumers, keeping price falls in check.
China is pushing U.S. President Donald Trump to drop more tariffs imposed on Beijing as part of a ‘Phase One’ U.S.-China trade deal, according to people familiar with the negotiations.
Looking ahead, next year’s oil market outlook may have upside potential, Mohammad Barkindo, Secretary-General of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said on Tuesday.
But in the next five years, OPEC would supply a diminishing amount of oil, squeezed by rising U.S. shale output and other rival sources, according to the oil producer group’s 2019 World Oil Outlook, released on Tuesday.
OPEC and its partners, including Russia, previously agreed to cut oil production by 1.2 million barrels per day until March 2020. They will meet in early December to review output policy.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
The projected upper bound is: 12.79.
The projected lower bound is: 11.10.
The projected closing price is: 11.95.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 27 white candles and 23 black candles for a net of 4 white candles.
A long upper shadow occurred. This is typically a bearish signal (particularly when it occurs near a high price level, at resistance level, or when the security is overbought).
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 80.1782. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 59.99. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 101 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 131.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 16 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
UNTD ST OIL FUND closed up 0.120 at 11.930. Volume was 40% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 23% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
11.920 12.005 11.910 11.930 16,771,084
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 11.66 11.57 11.92
Volatility: 30 45 39
Volume: 20,858,320 27,227,940 25,767,616
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
UNTD ST OIL FUND is currently 0.1% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume into USO (mildly bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on USO and have had this outlook for the last 5 periods. The security price has set a new 14-period high while our momentum oscillator has not. This is a bearish divergence.