United States Oil (USO) investors and traders fretted over global economic growth prospects

United States Oil (USO) investors and traders fretted over global economic growth prospects

United States Oil (USO) investors and traders fretted over global economic growth prospects

Oil futures were mixed on Monday, with U.S. crude edging lower, as investors and traders fretted over global economic growth prospects amid a standoff in Sino-U.S. trade talks.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures were at $61.58 per barrel, down 9 cents, or 0.2% at 0223 GMT, from their previous settlement. WTI closed the last session steady on the day.

The United States and China together accounted for 34% of global oil consumption in the first quarter of 2019, data from the International Energy Agency showed.

“The US-China trade war is set to intensify, which will limit gains in prices,” said Abhishek Kumar, head of analytics at Interfax Energy in London.

“Market participants will closely watch China’s retaliatory steps in response to the imposition of additional US tariffs on Chinese goods,” Kumar said, adding the dispute “could be particularly detrimental to the growth in global oil demand”.

Separately, in an early indicator of future output, U.S. energy companies last week reduced the number of oil rigs operating for the third time in four weeks.

Drillers cut two oil rigs in the week to May 10, bringing the total count down to 805, General Electric Co’s Baker Hughes energy services firm said in its closely followed report on Friday.

The rig count has declined over the past five months as independent exploration and production companies cut spending on new drilling.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

The projected upper bound is: 13.37.

The projected lower bound is: 12.34.

The projected closing price is: 12.86.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 5 black candles for a net of 1 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 22 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 4 black candles.

An engulfing bullish line occurred (where a white candle’s real body completely contains the previous black candle’s real body). The engulfing bullish pattern is bullish during a downtrend (which appears to be the case with UNTD ST OIL FUND). It then signifies that the momentum may be shifting from the bears to the bulls.

If the engulfing bullish pattern occurs during an uptrend, it may be a last engulfing top which indicates a top. The test to see if this is the case is if the next candle closes below the top of the current (white) candle’s real body.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 45.6141. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 11 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 46.13. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 11 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -67. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 11 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

UNTD ST OIL FUND closed up 0.030 at 12.840. Volume was 19% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 14% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
12.800 12.926 12.787 12.840 18,828,884

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 12.98 12.74 12.78
Volatility: 28 26 37
Volume: 26,350,404 21,680,704 24,969,142

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

UNTD ST OIL FUND is currently 0.5% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of USO at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on USO and have had this outlook for the last 5 periods.

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