United States Oil (USO) imports increased while exports decreased during the week ending May 31

United States Oil (USO) imports increased while exports decreased during the week ending May 31

United States Oil (USO) imports increased while exports decreased during the week ending May 31

U.S. crude oil imports increased while exports decreased during the week ending May 31, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said Wednesday.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 7.9 million barrels per day (b/d) last week, up by 1.065 million b/d from the previous week, while crude oil exports averaged about 3.3 million b/d, down by about 19,000 b/d from the previous week, according to the Weekly Petroleum Status Report.

Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 7.3 million b/d, down by 598,000 b/d year on year, while crude oil exports averaged about 3.2 million b/d, up by about 1.17 million b/d year on year.

According to the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, U.S. net imports of crude oil and petroleum products fell from an average of 3.8 million b/d in 2017 to 2.3 million in 2018. The EIA forecast that the net imports would continue to fall to 1.0 million b/d in 2019.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 12.16.

The projected upper bound is: 11.73.

The projected lower bound is: 10.33.

The projected closing price is: 11.03.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 25 black candles for a net of 1 black candles.

An engulfing bullish line occurred (where a white candle’s real body completely contains the previous black candle’s real body). The engulfing bullish pattern is bullish during a downtrend (which appears to be the case with UNTD ST OIL FUND). It then signifies that the momentum may be shifting from the bears to the bulls.

If the engulfing bullish pattern occurs during an uptrend, it may be a last engulfing top which indicates a top. The test to see if this is the case is if the next candle closes below the top of the current (white) candle’s real body.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 23.8734. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 0 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 30.62. This is not a topping or bottoming area. However, the RSI just crossed above 30 from a bottoming formation. This is a bullish sign. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 0 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -101.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a sell 10 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 9 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

UNTD ST OIL FUND closed up 0.290 at 11.060. Volume was 39% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 153% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
10.740 11.090 10.650 11.060 31,510,310

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 11.56 12.78 12.60
Volatility: 54 36 39
Volume: 32,517,450 24,341,238 25,697,828

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

UNTD ST OIL FUND is currently 12.2% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of USO at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on USO and have had this outlook for the last 23 periods.

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