United States Oil (USO) imports down, exports up last week
Prices rose this week after Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, Saudi Arabia’s new energy minister, said oil policy would not change and said an OPEC deal with Russia and other producers to cut output by 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) would be maintained.
Iraqi Oil Minister Thamer Ghadhban said the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries would discuss whether to deepen cuts, when ministers meet on Thursday. He said OPEC had discussed cuts of 1.6 million to 1.8 million bpd, when considering output curbs last year.
Russia’s Energy Minister Alexander Novak said the alliance of OPEC and other producers, known as OPEC+, would discuss global oil demand, but added that there were no fresh proposals to change production cut volumes.
Crude inventories fell by 6.9 million barrels from the previous week, according to the Energy Information Administration. This is compared with analysts’ expectations for an decrease of 2.7 million barrels.
OPEC cut its forecast on Wednesday for growth in world oil demand in 2020 by 60,000 bpd to 1.08 million bpd, due to an economic slowdown. It indicated the market would be in surplus.
Growing signs of slowdown were flagged by oil traders and executives attending industry gatherings in Singapore and Abu Dhabi this week.
OPEC has pointed to rising global production next year, particularly in U.S. shale fields, while data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed U.S. crude stocks fell last week by 7.2 million barrels, more than twice the amount analysts in a Reuters poll had forecast.
“The API report is quite constructive for the oil market as it points to a tightening domestic oil market in the face of flat production and stronger demand,” Dutch bank ING said.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.
The projected upper bound is: 12.43.
The projected lower bound is: 10.90.
The projected closing price is: 11.67.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 25 white candles and 25 black candles.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 70.4379. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 51.07. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 62 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 50. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 20 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
UNTD ST OIL FUND closed down -0.300 at 11.680. Volume was 33% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 43% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
11.990 12.050 11.580 11.680 38,325,376
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 11.70 11.67 11.73
Volatility: 42 42 41
Volume: 27,784,810 28,799,880 27,521,356
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
UNTD ST OIL FUND is currently 0.4% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is low as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of USO at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on USO and have had this outlook for the last 5 periods.
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