United States Oil (USO) hopes surrounding the signing of the first phase of a U.S.-China trade deal prevented a bigger drop in prices
Oil eased on Wednesday following an industry report showing a surprise build in U.S. crude stockpiles, but hopes surrounding the signing of the first phase of a U.S.-China trade deal prevented a bigger drop in prices.
Brent crude futures LCOc1 dropped 15 cents, or 0.23%, to $64.12 a barrel by 0421 GMT, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures CLc1 fell 16 cents, or 0.27%, to $58.25 per barrel.
Wednesday’s decline reversed two days of gains, with WTI climbing 1.1% through Tuesday and Brent gaining 1.4% during the period, on the expectation that China and the United States, the world’s two biggest crude oil users, would soon sign a preliminary agreement beginning an end to their 16-month trade war.
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that the United States and China are close to agreement on the first phase of their trade deal, after top negotiators from the two countries spoke by telephone and agreed to keep working on remaining issues.
Elsewhere OPEC and its production-cutting allies, a grouping known as ‘OPEC+’, will begin holding meetings on Dec. 4 in Vienna to examine output policy.
A meeting of the OPEC+ group on Dec. 6 will make a final announcement on the future policy, with an extension of curbs, possibly until June, the expected outcome.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 11.61.
The projected upper bound is: 12.69.
The projected lower bound is: 11.69.
The projected closing price is: 12.19.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 27 white candles and 23 black candles for a net of 4 white candles.
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 83.7304. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a sell 14 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 59.37. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 116 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 128.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
UNTD ST OIL FUND closed up 0.080 at 12.190. Volume was 40% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 30% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
12.170 12.230 12.075 12.190 16,454,452
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 11.99 11.63 11.97
Volatility: 32 28 38
Volume: 23,298,628 23,630,720 25,899,074
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
UNTD ST OIL FUND is currently 1.8% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of USO at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on USO and have had this outlook for the last 20 periods.