United States Oil (USO) higher during mid-morning trade in Asia
China’s export orders shrank in September as a tariff battle with Washington over technology escalated, adding to downward pressure on the world’s No. 2 economy, two surveys showed Sunday.
The reports add to signs Chinese trade, which had held up despite U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff hikes, might be weakening. That adds to pressure on an economy that already was forecast to cool due to slowing global consumer demand and lending controls imposed to rein in a debt boom.
The International Monetary Fund and other forecasters expect this year’s economic growth to fall to about 6.5 percent from 2017’s 6.8 percent. But that slowdown is due mostly to the ruling Communist Party’s long-term efforts to steer China to self-sustaining growth based on consumer spending instead of trade and investment.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 14.47.
The projected upper bound is: 16.11.
The projected lower bound is: 14.98.
The projected closing price is: 15.55.
A big white candle occurred. This is generally considered bullish, as prices closed significantly higher than they opened. If the candle appears when prices are “low,” it may be the first sign of a bottom. If it occurs when prices are rebounding off of a support area (e.g., a moving average, trendline, or retracement level), the long white candle adds credibility to the support. Similarly, if the candle appears during a breakout above a resistance area, the long white candle adds credibility to the breakout.
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 5 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 19 white candles and 27 black candles for a net of 8 black candles.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 75.6098. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 68.71. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 62 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 132.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 8 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
UNTD ST OIL FUND closed up 0.260 at 15.520. Volume was 8% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 8% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
15.240 15.570 15.230 15.520 18,517,126
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 15.03 14.41 13.49
Volatility: 20 25 29
Volume: 17,406,166 17,597,450 19,403,116
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
UNTD ST OIL FUND is currently 15.1% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of USO at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on USO and have had this outlook for the last 23 periods.
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