United States Oil (USO) headed lower

United States Oil (USO) headed lower

United States Oil (USO) headed lower

U.S. oil prices headed lower in the electronic trading session Tuesday after the American Petroleum Institute reported that U.S. crude supplies rose by 2.9 million barrels for the week ended Sept. 21, according to sources. The API data also showed supplies of gasoline up 949,000 million barrels, but distillates fell by 944,000 million barrels, sources said.

Supply data from the Energy Information Administration will be released Wednesday. Analysts polled by S&P Global Platts expect the EIA to report a fall of 2.2 million barrels in crude supplies. They also expect supply gains of 256,200 barrels in gasoline and 667,000 barrels in distillates. November crude CLX8, +0.08% was at $72.01 a barrel in electronic trading, down from the $72.28 settlement on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 14.35.

The projected upper bound is: 15.85.

The projected lower bound is: 14.74.

The projected closing price is: 15.30.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 5 black candles for a net of 1 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 21 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 5 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 81.8396. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a sell 15 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 66.94. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 59 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 139.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a sell 8 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

UNTD ST OIL FUND closed up 0.020 at 15.270. Volume was 9% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 28% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
15.320 15.360 15.180 15.270 18,303,860

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 14.81 14.34 13.43
Volatility: 23 25 29
Volume: 18,613,086 18,747,410 19,439,618

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

UNTD ST OIL FUND is currently 13.7% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of USO at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on USO and have had this outlook for the last 20 periods.

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