United States Oil (USO) futures climb as much as 1.4%

United States Oil (USO) futures climb as much as 1.4%

United States Oil (USO) futures climb as much as 1.4%

Oil surged on prospects of a supply crunch after the U.S. ruled out the release of emergency crude reserves, adding to concerns over potential losses in Iranian supplies.

Futures in New York climbed as much as 1.4 percent. Prices on Wednesday pared declines after U.S. Energy Secretary Rick Perry said releasing oil from the nation’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve to prevent a price spike would have “a fairly minor and short-term impact.” That helped the market shrug off a surprise gain in American crude inventories, which rose for the first time in six weeks.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 14.38.

The projected upper bound is: 15.69.

The projected lower bound is: 14.58.

The projected closing price is: 15.13.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 3 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 20 white candles and 27 black candles for a net of 7 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 77.4968. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 61.93. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 60 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 94. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 6 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

UNTD ST OIL FUND closed down -0.160 at 15.110. Volume was 45% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 25% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
15.170 15.240 15.090 15.110 11,065,241

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 14.85 14.36 13.45
Volatility: 24 25 29
Volume: 17,854,764 17,879,586 19,447,810

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

UNTD ST OIL FUND is currently 12.3% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of USO at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on USO and have had this outlook for the last 21 periods.

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