United States Oil (USO) Fund managers cut bullish crude holdings to 15-month low
Oil prices fell on Monday as as Russia signaled its output will remain high and concern over the global economy put crude on track for its biggest monthly fall since mid-2016.
Losses were limited ahead of U.S. sanctions on Iranian exports that are expected to reduce supplies when they come into effect in just under a week.
U.S. crude futures ended Monday’s session down 55 cents to $67.04. The contract has slumped about 8.5 percent in October, on pace for its largest monthly percentage decline since July 2016.
The OPEC, led by Saudi Arabia and non-OPEC member Russia, agreed in June to lift oil supplies, but OPEC then signaled last week that it may have to reimpose output cuts as global inventories rise.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.
The projected upper bound is: 14.80.
The projected lower bound is: 13.44.
The projected closing price is: 14.12.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 1 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 23 white candles and 24 black candles for a net of 1 black candles.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 39.9999. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 36.95. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 17 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -96. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 13 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
UNTD ST OIL FUND closed down -0.220 at 14.110. Volume was 1% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 59% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
14.250 14.280 14.040 14.110 21,263,340
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 14.48 14.81 13.81
Volatility: 35 29 30
Volume: 24,415,400 19,023,584 20,539,496
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
UNTD ST OIL FUND is currently 2.2% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of USO at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on USO and have had this outlook for the last 9 periods.
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