United States Oil (USO) fell after widely watched data showed a surprising increase in U.S. stocks

United States Oil (USO) fell after widely watched data showed a surprising increase in U.S. stocks

United States Oil (USO) fell after widely watched data showed a surprising increase in U.S. stocks

Oil prices fell on Thursday, extending losses into a second straight session, after widely watched data showed a surprising increase in U.S. stocks.

International Brent crude oil futures were at $67.63 a barrel at 0045 GMT, down 20 cents, or 0.3 percent, from their last close. Brent closed down 0.2 percent on Wednesday.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $59.18 per barrel, down 23 cents, or 0.4 percent, from their last settlement. WTI fell 0.9 percent on Wednesday.

Prices came under pressure from a rise in U.S. inventories, although analysts pointed to support from efforts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-affiliated allies like Russia, known as OPEC+, to trim output.

U.S. crude inventories rose last week by 2.8 million barrels, compared with analysts’ expectations for a decrease of 1.2 million barrels, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said.

Crude exports fell by 506,000 barrels per day, the EIA said.

Offering support for prices, oil output from Russia, OPEC’s biggest non-member ally, averaged 11.3 million barrels per day so far in March, a source said, compared with 11.34 million barrels a day the previous month.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 11.83.

The projected upper bound is: 12.87.

The projected lower bound is: 11.88.

The projected closing price is: 12.37.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 5 black candles for a net of 1 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 30 white candles and 19 black candles for a net of 11 white candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 58.1560. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 60.10. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 62 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 62. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

UNTD ST OIL FUND closed down -0.130 at 12.340. Volume was 34% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 44% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
12.490 12.510 12.220 12.340 19,128,770

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 12.32 11.66 12.93
Volatility: 20 27 39
Volume: 18,387,308 22,219,678 25,207,258

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

UNTD ST OIL FUND is currently 4.6% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is low as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of USO at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on USO and have had this outlook for the last 14 periods.

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