United States Oil (USO) fell after comments from a U.S. official stymied hopes that a U.S.-China trade deal would be reached soon
Oil prices fell nearly 1% on Monday after comments from a U.S. official stymied hopes that a U.S.-China trade deal would be reached soon, feeding worries that a slowing global economy would reduce demand for oil.
Brent crude futures settled down 47 cents, or 0.8%, to $58.94 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures settled 47 cents, or 0.9%, lower at $53.31 a barrel.
Although President Donald Trump has said he would like to sign a deal when he meets his Chinese counterpart at November’s APEC summit, the U.S. commerce secretary said an initial trade deal does not need to be finalized next month.
“The key thing is to get everything right that we do sign. That’s the important element. That’s what the president is wedded to,” Wilbur Ross said, after being asked if he would mind skipping an APEC signing.
Adding to tensions, China is seeking $2.4 billion in retaliatory sanctions against the United States for non-compliance with a WTO ruling in a tariffs case dating back to the era of President Barack Obama, a document showed.
“Traders are still betting on slowing global growth and are convinced that this will lead to an oversupply of oil,” Phil Flynn, senior energy analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago, said in a statement.
On the supply side, Russia, the world’s second-largest oil producer, said on Sunday it did not meet its supply reduction commitment to a global deal in September because of an increase in natural gas condensate output as the country prepared for winter.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and other oil producers, an alliance known as OPEC+, agreed in December to cut supply by 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) from the start of this year.
“Russia intends to fully comply with the agreed production cut in October, though it is reasonable to doubt whether this will actually be achieved,” Commerzbank analyst Carsten Fritsch said.
European refinery production in September fell 4% from the previous month and 4.2% year-on-year, data from Euroilstock showed on Monday. Production hit 10.451 million barrels per day (bpd), with output declining across all refined products.
Offering some encouragement, European shares opened slightly higher on Monday as investors remained hopeful Britain would avoid a disorderly exit from the European Union.
Analysts have said any British-EU agreement that avoids a no-deal Brexit should boost economic growth and oil demand.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 11.47.
The projected upper bound is: 12.08.
The projected lower bound is: 10.34.
The projected closing price is: 11.21.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 7 white candles and 3 black candles for a net of 4 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 25 white candles and 25 black candles.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 57.0910. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 11 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 46.27. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 90 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 37. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 10 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
UNTD ST OIL FUND closed down -0.010 at 11.210. Volume was 40% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 25% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
11.050 11.220 11.040 11.210 17,652,836
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 11.16 11.53 11.88
Volatility: 26 47 39
Volume: 23,115,964 29,062,750 26,421,316
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
UNTD ST OIL FUND is currently 5.6% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of USO at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on USO and have had this outlook for the last 14 periods.
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