United States Oil (USO) falls amid surging U.S. crude inventories and weak demand from refineries

United States Oil (USO) falls amid surging U.S. crude inventories and weak demand from refineries

United States Oil (USO) falls amid surging U.S. crude inventories and weak demand from refineries

Oil prices dropped by around 1% on Thursday, extending falls from the previous session amid surging U.S. crude inventories and weak demand from refineries.

Brent crude futures, the international benchmark for oil prices, were at $70.36 per barrel at 0652 GMT, down 63 cents, or 0.9%, from their last close.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were down by 51 cents, or 0.8%, at $60.91 per barrel.

Crude futures already fell by around 2% the previous day.

U.S. crude oil inventories rose last week, hitting their highest levels since July 2017, due to weak refinery demand, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday.

Commercial U.S. crude inventories rose by 4.7 million barrels in the week ended May 17, to 476.8 million barrels, their highest since July 2017, the EIA data showed.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 13.29.

The projected lower bound is: 12.22.

The projected closing price is: 12.76.

Candlesticks

A big black candle occurred. This is bearish, as prices closed significantly lower than they opened. If the candle appears when prices are “high,” it may be the first sign of a top. If it occurs when prices are confronting an overhead resistance area (e.g., a moving average, trendline, or price resistance level), the long black candle adds credibility to the resistance. Similarly, if the candle appears as prices break below a support area, the long black candle confirms the failure of the support area.
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 25 white candles and 23 black candles for a net of 2 white candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 52.0900. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 19 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 43.70. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 19 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -62. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

UNTD ST OIL FUND closed down -0.390 at 12.740. Volume was 23% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 35% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
12.990 13.054 12.690 12.740 27,554,616

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 12.94 12.93 12.72
Volatility: 24 26 37
Volume: 22,610,544 21,712,906 25,220,364

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

UNTD ST OIL FUND is currently 0.1% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of USO at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on USO and have had this outlook for the last 13 periods.

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