United States Oil (USO) extending the previous session’s rise
Oil prices crept up on Wednesday, extending the previous session’s rise, but gains were kept in check amid growing fears over the impact of a global economic slowdown on demand.
Brent was up by 17 cents, or 0.3 percent, at $68.14 by 0311 GMT, reversing earlier losses of a similar magnitude. On Tuesday, the global benchmark rose 76 cents to $67.97 a barrel, not far below its year-to-date high of $68.69, reached on March 21.
U.S. crude futures added 9 cents, or 0.2 percent, to $60.03, also reversing losses in earlier trade. The U.S. benchmark rose $1.12, or 1.9 percent, to $59.94 a barrel in the previous session.
“We seem to have reached a state of equilibrium after the recent headline-driven choppy trading and we need to see some new impetus for price direction,” said Jeff Halley, senior market analyst at OANDA in Singapore.
That is unlikely to come until there is a conclusion on the U.S.-China trade talks, he added, referring to negotiations that restart on Thursday as the world’s two largest economies seek to end an eight-month old trade war.
The American Petroleum Institute, a trade organization, said late on Tuesday that U.S. crude inventories rose 1.9 million barrels in the latest week, while analysts had forecast a decrease of 1.2 million barrels.
The market was waiting to see whether official figures due later on Wednesday would confirm the API data.
“It will be very interesting to see the inventory numbers tonight. If we see a fall we could see a sharp move higher,” OANDA’s Halley said.
Hedge funds and other money managers have increased bets that demand for oil will be sustained, even as the market rallied last week.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 11.82.
The projected upper bound is: 13.00.
The projected lower bound is: 12.00.
The projected closing price is: 12.50.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 1 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 30 white candles and 19 black candles for a net of 11 white candles.
A rising window occurred (where the top of the previous shadow is below the bottom of the current shadow). This usually implies a continuation of a bullish trend. There have been 7 rising windows in the last 50 candles–this makes the current rising window even more bullish.
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 49.2753. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 64.85. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 61 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 105.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 8 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
UNTD ST OIL FUND closed up 0.220 at 12.470. Volume was 45% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 46% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
12.490 12.540 12.400 12.470 16,380,993
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 12.31 11.62 12.93
Volatility: 23 28 39
Volume: 19,375,792 22,458,308 25,190,784
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
UNTD ST OIL FUND gapped up today (bullish) on normal volume. Possibility of a Runaway Gap which usually signifies a continuation of the trend. Four types of price gaps exist – Common, Breakaway, Runaway, and Exhaustion. Gaps acts as support/resistance.
UNTD ST OIL FUND is currently 3.6% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is low as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume into USO (mildly bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on USO and have had this outlook for the last 13 periods.