United States Oil (USO) extending gains on growing evidence of disruptions
Brent crude oil LCOc1 rose 63 cents a barrel to settle at $77.77. U.S. crude CLc1 settled 74 cents higher at $70.25 a barrel, after earlier hitting a session high of $70.50. Both contracts were at their highest in more than one month.
A rally that started earlier in the day accelerated as U.S. crude rose above $70 a barrel, and more speculators entered the market, said Bob Yawger, director of futures at Mizuho in New York. “There are pretty good tailwinds here that will keep people jumping on board,” he said. Brent’s wide premium to WTI is likely to encourage exports of U.S. crude, keeping U.S. inventories lower and boosting activity following weekly inventory data, he said.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 14.15.
The projected upper bound is: 15.53.
The projected lower bound is: 14.03.
The projected closing price is: 14.78.
Candlesticks
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 25 white candles and 23 black candles for a net of 2 white candles.
Momentum Indicators
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
Stochastic Oscillator
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 84.2105. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a sell 24 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 63.77. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 42 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 124.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 8 period(s) ago.
MACD
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 6 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
UNTD ST OIL FUND closed up 0.090 at 14.750. Volume was 31% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 14% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
14.690 14.830 14.640 14.750 14,333,871
Technical Outlook
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 14.26 14.29 13.16
Volatility: 18 34 29
Volume: 14,845,212 21,625,882 19,249,254
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
Summary
UNTD ST OIL FUND is currently 12.1% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of USO at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on USO and have had this outlook for the last 3 periods.
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