United States Oil (USO) erases earlier gains, to finish lower as demand worries prevail

United States Oil (USO) erases earlier gains, to finish lower as demand worries prevail

United States Oil (USO) erases earlier gains, to finish lower as demand worries prevail

Oil futures give up earlier gains on Monday to finish with a modest losses, pressured by prevailing worries over energy demand ahead of U.S.-China trade talks later this week, despite a monthly drop in OPEC output.

Traders are gearing up for scheduled talks between U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators at the end of the week that could help determine the outlook for energy demand.

On Wednesday, the oil market will get an update on weekly U.S. petroleum supplies from the Energy Information Administration. Trade group the American Petroleum Institute will issue its own figures late Tuesday.

Crude stockpiles are expected post a rise of 2.4 million barrels for the week ended Oct. 4, according to analysts polled by S&P Global Platts. The survey also showed expectations for supplies declines of 1.2 million barrels for gasoline and 2.5 million barrels for distillates, which include heating oil.

Also later this week, the market will see monthly updates to global oil demand forecasts from OPEC on Thursday and the International Energy Agency on Friday, analysts said.

In other energy trade, November gasoline RBX19, +0.59%  shed 0.3% to $1.5694 a gallon, while November heating oil HOX19, +0.36%  rose 0.5% to $1.9033 a gallon.

November natural-gas futures NGX19, -0.13%  fell by 2.1% to $2.303 per million British thermal units.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 11.57.

The projected upper bound is: 11.97.

The projected lower bound is: 10.09.

The projected closing price is: 11.03.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 2 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 36.9504. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 38.95. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 80 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -78. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 0 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 8 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

UNTD ST OIL FUND closed unchanged at 11.040. Volume was 33% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 18% wider than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
11.140 11.280 10.980 11.040 20,121,008
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 11.37 11.59 11.81
Volatility: 22 51 41
Volume: 25,610,092 31,471,608 26,953,758

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

UNTD ST OIL FUND is currently 6.5% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume out of USO (mildly bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on USO and have had this outlook for the last 4 periods.

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