United States Oil (USO) ends at 3-month high as supplies tighten
Crude-oil futures ended on a mixed note Tuesday, with international benchmark Brent crude slightly lower after posting gains in each of the last five sessions while the U.S. benchmark climbed to its highest finish in three months amid reports of falling Saudi Arabian exports.
Traders also eyed talks between the U.S. and China for signs of progress on trade that could ease worries about energy demand and boost crude prices.
March West Texas Intermediate crude oil CLH9, -0.05% gained 50 cents, or 0.9%, to settle at $56.09 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange — the highest finish for a front-month contract since Nov. 19, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The March contract expires at Wednesday’s settlement.
April Brent LCOJ9, -0.09% lost a nickel, or less than 0.1%, to settle at $66.45 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange after gains in each of the last five sessions.
On Monday, Brent crude saw a modest rise, but there was no settlement for Nymex WTI oil as U.S. markets were closed in observance of Presidents Day holiday. Last week, WTI prices posted a 5.4% weekly gain while Brent soared 6.7% over the same period.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in monthly report Tuesday that it expects oil production from seven major U.S. shale plays to climb by 84,000 barrels a day in March to 8.398 million barrels a day.
Separately, the EIA will release its weekly petroleum status report at 11 a.m. Eastern Time Thursday, a day later than usual due to the Presidents Day holiday earlier in the week.
Back on Nymex Tuesday, March gasoline RBH9, -0.12% shed 0.6% to $1.564 a gallon and March heating oil HOH9, -0.08% fell 1.3% to $1.995 a gallon. March natural gas NGH19, -0.38% settled at $2.662 per million British thermal units, up 1.4%.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 11.45.
The projected upper bound is: 12.55.
The projected lower bound is: 11.04.
The projected closing price is: 11.79.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 7 white candles and 3 black candles for a net of 4 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 31 white candles and 19 black candles for a net of 12 white candles.
Three white candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 98.2906. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a sell 10 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 63.54. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 36 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 155.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
UNTD ST OIL FUND closed up 0.070 at 11.780. Volume was 33% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 60% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
11.640 11.800 11.630 11.780 21,093,934
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 11.32 10.78 13.18
Volatility: 26 46 39
Volume: 20,648,494 30,094,422 25,227,984
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
UNTD ST OIL FUND is currently 10.6% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is low as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of USO at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on USO and have had this outlook for the last 28 periods.
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