United States Oil (USO) edges higher but on track for big weekly loss
Oil futures edged higher on Friday but were on track for a large weekly loss on fears that slower global economic growth will hurt fuel demand, while Saudi Arabia said it has fully restored oil output after recent attacks.
Brent crude oil futures rose 8 cents, or 0.1%, to $57.79 a barrel by 0138 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose 12 cents, or 0.2%, to $52.57 a barrel.
For the week, Brent futures were down 6.7%, marking its largest weekly loss since December, while WTI was down 6%, its biggest decline since July.
Saudi Arabia’s energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman also said on Thursday the world’s top crude oil exporter has fully restored oil output after attacks on its facilities last month that knocked out more than 5% of global oil supply.
“The mood wasn’t helped by news that Saudi Arabia has managed a speedy recovery from the recent attacks,” ANZ Bank said in a note on Friday.
However, recent data showing a slowdown in U.S. shale output and drilling activity could lend some support.
“Continued falls in drilling activity has seen monthly growth in U.S. shale oil output fall, from 150 thousand barrels per day (kbpd) to only 50 kbpd,” said ANZ.
“This is likely to linger well into 2020.”
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 11.64.
The projected upper bound is: 11.86.
The projected lower bound is: 9.98.
The projected closing price is: 10.92.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 25 white candles and 25 black candles.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 17.2667. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a buy 6 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 36.38. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 78 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -145.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a sell 11 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 6 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
UNTD ST OIL FUND closed down -0.050 at 10.930. Volume was 3% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 8% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
10.830 10.980 10.640 10.930 29,415,040
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 11.60 11.61 11.79
Volatility: 19 51 42
Volume: 25,368,416 31,251,924 27,187,348
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
UNTD ST OIL FUND is currently 7.3% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume out of USO (mildly bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on USO and have had this outlook for the last 2 periods.
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