United States Oil (USO) down after EIA reports surprise weekly climb in U.S. crude supplies

United States Oil (USO) down after EIA reports surprise weekly climb in U.S. crude supplies

United States Oil (USO) down after EIA reports surprise weekly climb in U.S. crude supplies

U.S. stockpiles of crude oil unexpectedly rose by a bit last week, although the increase was largely offset by a decline in refined gasoline supplies.

Commercial crude inventories jumped by 1.2 million barrels last week after trade groups and analysts had predicted a decrease. However, gasoline stocks fell by 1.5 million barrels.

The benchmark for U.S. oil prices is hovering near $73 a barrel after quickly falling by more than $1 a barrel after the U.S. Energy Department released the inventories data Thursday. The country’s commercial crude stockpiles are just below the five-year average.

The country’s oil production is remaining at the record high of 10.9 million barrels a day that was set early last month, while crude exports declined from the new record of 3 million barrels a day set two weeks ago down to more than 2.3 million barrels daily.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 13.81.

The projected upper bound is: 15.62.

The projected lower bound is: 14.26.

The projected closing price is: 14.94.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 26 white candles and 23 black candles for a net of 3 white candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 86.2170. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a sell 12 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 67.01. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 99. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 8 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

UNTD ST OIL FUND closed down -0.040 at 14.920. Volume was 100% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 94% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
15.190 15.250 14.730 14.920 12,370

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 14.31 13.91 12.40
Volatility: 38 31 28
Volume: 23,838,938 20,366,386 18,387,424

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

UNTD ST OIL FUND is currently 20.3% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume into USO (mildly bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on USO and have had this outlook for the last 4 periods.

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