United States Oil (USO) dips were a result of ample oil supply amid surging exports from the United States

United States Oil (USO) dips were a result of ample oil supply amid surging exports from the United States

United States Oil (USO) dips were a result of ample oil supply amid surging exports from the United States

Oil prices fell on Monday, giving up earlier gains, squeezed by plentiful supply and US firms in particular increasing exports in competition with traditional producers from the Middle East in key markets like Asia.

International Brent crude oil futures were at $66.88 a barrel at 0449 GMT, down 24 cents, or 0.4 percent, from their last close. They ended Friday little changed after touching their highest since November 16 at $67.73 a barrel.

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $57.11 per barrel, down 15 cents, or 0.3 percent, from their last settlement. WTI futures climbed 0.5 percent on Friday, having marked their highest since November 16 at $57.81 a barrel.

Traders said the dips were a result of ample oil supply amid surging exports from the United States, forcing other producers especially in the Middle East to start offering their crude at discounts.

US crude oil production has hit a record 12 million barrels per day (bpd), an increase of more than 2 million bpd since early 2018. Exports hit a record 3.6 million bpd this month.

The surge in US oil output counters efforts led by the Middle East-dominated Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to cut output in order to tighten the market and prop up prices.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 11.53.

The projected upper bound is: 12.33.

The projected lower bound is: 10.84.

The projected closing price is: 11.58.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 31 white candles and 19 black candles for a net of 12 white candles.

A falling window occurred (where the bottom of the previous shadow is above the top of the current shadow). This usually implies a continuation of a bearish trend. There have been 3 falling windows in the last 50 candles–this makes the current falling window even more bearish. The two candles preceding the falling window were black, which makes this pattern even more bearish.

Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 60.9910. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 54.84. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 40 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 36. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

UNTD ST OIL FUND closed down -0.380 at 11.570. Volume was 8% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 46% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
11.730 11.770 11.500 11.570 28,525,156

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 11.58 10.85 13.14
Volatility: 28 45 39
Volume: 20,109,542 28,702,434 25,024,306

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

UNTD ST OIL FUND gapped down today (bearish) on normal volume. Possibility of a Runaway Gap which usually signifies a continuation of the trend. Four types of price gaps exist – Common, Breakaway, Runaway, and Exhaustion. Gaps acts as support/resistance.
UNTD ST OIL FUND is currently 11.9% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of USO at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on USO and have had this outlook for the last 32 periods.

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