United States Oil (USO) development on the impending U.S. sanctions on Iran
To be honest, I’m still not 100% sold on Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) despite the huge rally in Apple stock of late. The AAPL stock price has risen 49% over the past year, adding over $360 billion in market value.
The catalysts for the rally are twofold. First, the market seems to be far less concerned about so-called commoditization of the iPhone. The long-held bear case for Apple stock was that lower-priced competition eventually would be good enough.
U.S. sanctions will target Iran’s crude oil exports from Nov. 4, and Washington has been putting pressure on governments and companies worldwide to cut their imports to zero.
However, a U.S. government official said on Friday that the country could consider exemptions for nations that have already shown efforts to reduce their imports of Iranian oil.
That is the longest streak of weekly cuts since October last year.
With Iran sanctions still on the table, potential spare capacity constraints and also a slowdown in U.S. drilling, U.S. bank J.P.Morgan said in its latest cross-asset outlook for clients that it recommended to “stay long Jan ’19 WTI on supply risks to crude”.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 14.74.
The projected upper bound is: 16.33.
The projected lower bound is: 15.10.
The projected closing price is: 15.71.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 5 black candles for a net of 1 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 18 white candles and 28 black candles for a net of 10 black candles.
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 58.2038. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 63.12. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 69. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 13 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
UNTD ST OIL FUND closed down -0.050 at 15.690. Volume was 30% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 34% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
15.720 15.880 15.600 15.690 26,026,296
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 15.57 14.57 13.60
Volatility: 27 27 29
Volume: 20,524,430 17,943,380 19,723,484
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
UNTD ST OIL FUND is currently 15.4% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume into USO (mildly bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on USO and have had this outlook for the last 28 periods.