United States Oil (USO) Demand is still very strong

Crude rose as storm Michael strengthened and shut some U.S. oil output, while the International Energy Agency called on producers to pump more as the market is “entering the red zone.”

Futures in New York rose 0.6 percent. Michael, currently a category 1 storm, is strengthening as it heads toward Florida after shutting about 19 percent of oil production in the Gulf of Mexico. The IEA’s Executive Director Fatih Birol urged crude producers in the Middle East and elsewhere to do more in order to avoid a “ challenging” end to the year.

West Texas Intermediate for November delivery was 43 cents higher at $74.72 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 8:49 a.m. local time. The contract lost 5 cents to $74.29 a barrel on Monday. Total volume traded Tuesday was 14 percent below the 100-day average.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 14.79.

The projected upper bound is: 16.45.

The projected lower bound is: 15.24.

The projected closing price is: 15.85.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 1 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 20 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 6 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 30.9255. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 65.12. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 63. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 15 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

UNTD ST OIL FUND closed up 0.140 at 15.820. Volume was 17% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 26% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
15.780 15.900 15.640 15.820 23,300,612

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 15.67 14.63 13.64
Volatility: 26 26 29
Volume: 20,533,704 18,159,054 19,832,654

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

UNTD ST OIL FUND is currently 16.0% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume into USO (mildly bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on USO and have had this outlook for the last 30 periods.

  news, oil, outlook, shayne heffernan, trading, United States Oil, USO

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