United States Oil (USO) demand concerns on the back of economic jitters linked to the U.S.-Chinese trade war have capped prices

United States Oil (USO) demand concerns on the back of economic jitters linked to the U.S.-Chinese trade war have capped prices

United States Oil (USO) demand concerns on the back of economic jitters linked to the U.S.-Chinese trade war have capped prices

Oil prices settled roughly flat on Thursday, recovering from the day’s worst losses that came shortly after U.S. President Donald Trump called for OPEC to boost crude production to lower prices.

“Very important that OPEC increase the flow of Oil. World Markets are fragile, price of Oil getting too high. Thank you!” Trump tweeted.

Futures hit a session low immediately following Trump’s comments, but then rallied above pre-tweet levels.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled 11 cents lower at $59.30 a barrel. Earlier the contract fell to $58.20 a barrel.

International Brent crude oil futures fell 1 cent to $67.82 a barrel on Thursday, after earlier sinking to $66.54 a barrel in the wake of Trump’s tweet.

Demand concerns on the back of economic jitters linked to the U.S.-Chinese trade war have capped prices.

China has pledged to further open its massive financial markets to foreign investors as senior U.S. officials arrived in Beijing for more trade talks.

U.S. crude inventories rose last week by 2.8 million barrels, compared with analysts’ expectations for a decrease of 1.2 million barrels, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 11.83.

The projected upper bound is: 12.86.

The projected lower bound is: 11.89.

The projected closing price is: 12.38.

Candlesticks

A big white candle occurred. This is generally considered bullish, as prices closed significantly higher than they opened. If the candle appears when prices are “low,” it may be the first sign of a bottom. If it occurs when prices are rebounding off of a support area (e.g., a moving average, trendline, or retracement level), the long white candle adds credibility to the support. Similarly, if the candle appears during a breakout above a resistance area, the long white candle adds credibility to the breakout.
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 30 white candles and 19 black candles for a net of 11 white candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 65.7143. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 60.34. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 63 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 22. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

UNTD ST OIL FUND closed up 0.010 at 12.350. Volume was 28% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 43% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
12.150 12.350 12.140 12.350 20,701,070

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 12.34 11.68 12.92
Volatility: 20 27 39
Volume: 18,338,956 22,155,382 25,237,310

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

UNTD ST OIL FUND is currently 4.4% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is low as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of USO at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on USO and have had this outlook for the last 15 periods.

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