United States Oil (USO) could be the next casualty in US-China trade war
Oil prices rose on Thursday, reversing course after falling to the lowest point in six weeks overnight.
The VLCC Tianjin left the Corpus Christi lightering zone in the Gulf of Mexico on June 19 with nearly 2.1 million barrels of US WTI/Midland WTI crude on board. It has just discharged its cargo at Reliance’s Jamnagar refinery in India, sneaking in before the end of the July to mark a record month of deliveries of US barrels to India.
Despite this milestone, China continues to hold the mantle as the leading Asian destination for US crude. But that could change going forward, with the growing likelihood of impending tariffs.
India is going to import nearly as much US crude as China in August, as its appetite for light sweet US crude increases…just as China loses theirs.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
The projected upper bound is: 15.14.
The projected lower bound is: 13.57.
The projected closing price is: 14.36.
A big white candle occurred. This is generally considered bullish, as prices closed significantly higher than they opened. If the candle appears when prices are “low,” it may be the first sign of a bottom. If it occurs when prices are rebounding off of a support area (e.g., a moving average, trendline, or retracement level), the long white candle adds credibility to the support. Similarly, if the candle appears during a breakout above a resistance area, the long white candle adds credibility to the breakout.
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 5 black candles for a net of 1 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 25 white candles and 23 black candles for a net of 2 white candles.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 33.1460. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 52.06. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 22 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 18. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
UNTD ST OIL FUND closed up 0.270 at 14.360. Volume was 15% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 23% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
14.010 14.420 13.980 14.360 17,357,270
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 14.30 14.02 12.83
Volatility: 23 36 28
Volume: 18,760,762 22,250,684 19,119,594
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
UNTD ST OIL FUND is currently 11.9% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of USO at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on USO and have had this outlook for the last 1 periods.
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