United States Oil (USO) continues to stagger forward without direction
The oil market continues to stagger forward without direction, and the EIA data is offering little clarity.
Just last week, the EIA reported a sharp build up in crude oil inventories, raising concerns about over supply. But inventories have seesawed back and forth for much of this summer, muddying the waters for analysts. Just this week, the agency reported a huge drawdown in stocks, restoring some bullish sentiment, and helping to push oil prices up more than $2 per barrel on Wednesday.
One of the signs of a bullish market, in our view, is that prices prove resilient to highly bearish data, and can surge on moderate improvements,” Standard Chartered wrote in a note. “The oil market currently fits that description; prices recovered from last week’s extremely bearish data, and have risen on more encouraging signs this week.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
The projected upper bound is: 15.06.
The projected lower bound is: 13.51.
The projected closing price is: 14.29.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 1 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 24 black candles.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 87.8050. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a sell 19 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 54.99. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 37 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 85. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
UNTD ST OIL FUND closed unchanged at 14.270. Volume was 45% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 30% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
14.200 14.310 14.155 14.270 11,531,097
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 13.90 14.16 13.08
Volatility: 30 35 29
Volume: 21,090,386 22,165,544 19,411,506
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
UNTD ST OIL FUND is currently 9.1% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of USO at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on USO and have had this outlook for the last 16 periods. Our momentum oscillator has set a new 14-period high while the security price has not. This is a bullish divergence.