United States Oil (USO) consumers can expect prices at the pump to rise up to 20 cents

United States Oil (USO) consumers can expect prices at the pump to rise up to 20 cents

United States Oil (USO) consumers can expect prices at the pump to rise up to 20 cents

Gas prices already are rising after an attack badly damaged two oil facilities in Saudi Arabia over the weekend, disrupting world oil supplies and sending crude oil prices up 15% on Monday. The average national gasoline price in the U.S. was up 3 cents to $2.59 per gallon Tuesday, according to the AAA motor club. On Monday, the price was $2.56.

Consumers can expect prices at the pump to rise up to 20 cents for a gallon of regular gas over the next week, Patrick DeHaan, head of petroleum analysis with GasBuddy, told CBS MoneyWatch.

“We will start to see tanker trucks fill up and adjust their prices,” DeHaan said Monday. “The first gas stations will be filling up with pricier gasoline later this evening. … We expect the first impact to hit the pump tomorrow.”

The inflationary effect of the Saudi Arabia attack will be spread relatively evenly across the nation, but the West Coast could see slightly higher gas prices than the rest of the country, DeHaan said. The region accounts for nearly half of all U.S. crude imports from Saudi Arabia. Refineries in California in particular are dependent on imports from the kingdom as they lack access to pipelines connecting to oil supplies in Texas.  

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 11.83.

The projected upper bound is: 13.26.

The projected lower bound is: 11.33.

The projected closing price is: 12.30.

Candlesticks

A big black candle occurred. This is bearish, as prices closed significantly lower than they opened. If the candle appears when prices are “high,” it may be the first sign of a top. If it occurs when prices are confronting an overhead resistance area (e.g., a moving average, trendline, or price resistance level), the long black candle adds credibility to the resistance. Similarly, if the candle appears as prices break below a support area, the long black candle confirms the failure of the support area.
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 26 white candles and 24 black candles for a net of 2 white candles.

An engulfing bearish line occurred (where a black candle’s real body completely contains the previous white candle’s real body). The engulfing bearish pattern is bearish during an uptrend (which appears to be the case with UNTD ST OIL FUND). It then signifies that the momentum may be shifting from the bulls to the bears.

If the engulfing bearish pattern occurs during a downtrend, it may be a last engulfing bottom which indicates a bullish reversal. The test to see if this is the case is if the next candle closes above the bottom the current (black) candle’s real body.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 57.8108. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 57.30. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 66 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 144.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 24 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

UNTD ST OIL FUND closed down -0.540 at 12.290. Volume was 228% above average (trending) and Bollinger Bands were 8% narrower than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
12.930 12.930 12.150 12.290 99,002,048
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 11.90 11.69 11.75
Volatility: 81 52 43
Volume: 39,591,316 31,059,210 27,773,406

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

UNTD ST OIL FUND is currently 4.6% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of USO at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on USO and have had this outlook for the last 9 periods.

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