United States Oil (USO) concerns about supplies outweigh fears of a slowing global economy
Oil prices rose on Monday, adding to gains in the first quarter when the major benchmarks posted their biggest increases in nearly a decade, as concerns about supplies outweigh fears of a slowing global economy.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures rose 32 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $60.46 barrel, after posting a rise of 32 percent in the January-March period.
U.S. sanctions on Iran and Venezuela along with supply cuts by members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other major producers have helped support prices this year, overshadowing concerns about global growth and the U.S.-China trade war.
However, future gains will be limited by potential softness in the global economy as well as the ability of U.S. oil producers to ramp up production when prices spike, said Phin Ziebell, senior economist at National Australia Bank in Sydney.
“It’s tough to see a really big rally from here,” he said.
Still, analysts have turned cautiously optimistic on crude oil prices this year, a Reuters poll showed on Friday.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 11.84.
The projected upper bound is: 13.01.
The projected lower bound is: 12.04.
The projected closing price is: 12.53.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 29 white candles and 20 black candles for a net of 9 white candles.
A rising window occurred (where the top of the previous shadow is below the bottom of the current shadow). This usually implies a continuation of a bullish trend. There have been 8 rising windows in the last 50 candles–this makes the current rising window even more bullish.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 67.3759. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 63.86. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 64 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 119.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
UNTD ST OIL FUND closed up 0.150 at 12.500. Volume was 38% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 43% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
12.560 12.560 12.420 12.500 17,631,522
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 12.37 11.71 12.92
Volatility: 21 27 39
Volume: 18,477,488 21,852,948 25,228,100
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
UNTD ST OIL FUND gapped up today (bullish) on normal volume. Possibility of a Runaway Gap which usually signifies a continuation of the trend. Four types of price gaps exist – Common, Breakaway, Runaway, and Exhaustion. Gaps acts as support/resistance.
UNTD ST OIL FUND is currently 3.3% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume into USO (mildly bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on USO and have had this outlook for the last 16 periods. The security price has set a new 14-period high while our momentum oscillator has not. This is a bearish divergence.
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