United States Oil (USO) as economic growth concerns weighed on sentiment

United States Oil (USO) as economic growth concerns weighed on sentiment

United States Oil (USO) as economic growth concerns weighed on sentiment

Oil prices eased from 2019 peaks on Friday as economic growth concerns weighed on sentiment, pausing a three-month rally driven by OPEC-led supply cuts and U.S. sanctions against Iran and Venezuela.

Brent crude oil futures were at $67.72 per barrel at 0419 GMT, down 14 cents, or 0.2 percent, from their last close. Brent hit a four-month high of $68.69 per barrel the day before.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures were at $59.84 per barrel, down 14 cents, or 0.2 percent from their last settlement. WTI also hit a 2019 peak at $60.39 the previous day.

Further price increases have also been crimped by a jump of more than 2 million bpd in U.S. crude oil production since early 2018 to a record 12.1 million bpd, making the United States the world’s biggest producer ahead of Russia and Saudi Arabia.

Soaring U.S. output has resulted in increasing exports, which have doubled over the past year to more than 3 million bpd.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimated that the United States would become a net crude oil exporter by 2021.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 11.78.

The projected upper bound is: 13.02.

The projected lower bound is: 11.94.

The projected closing price is: 12.48.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 1 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 31 white candles and 18 black candles for a net of 13 white candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 80.4510. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a sell 18 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 67.34. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 58 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 113.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 8 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

UNTD ST OIL FUND closed down -0.060 at 12.440. Volume was 51% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 46% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
12.480 12.550 12.390 12.440 14,933,624

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 12.16 11.54 12.95
Volatility: 19 31 39
Volume: 20,344,726 23,262,232 25,164,134

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

UNTD ST OIL FUND is currently 3.9% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume into USO (mildly bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on USO and have had this outlook for the last 10 periods.

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