United States Oil (USO) announcement of a 90-day pause on additional trade tariffs between China and the U.S.

United States Oil (USO) announcement of a 90-day pause on additional trade tariffs between China and the U.S.

United States Oil (USO) announcement of a 90-day pause on additional trade tariffs between China and the U.S.

Oil prices surged on Monday after the United States and China agreed to a 90-day truce in their trade war, and ahead of a meeting this week by producer club OPEC that is expected to result in a supply cut.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $53.63 per barrel at 0358 GMT, up $2.73 per barrel, or 5.4 percent from their last close.

U.S. crude prices were further pushed up by an announcement from Canada that Alberta province will force producers to cut output by 8.7 percent, or 325,000 barrels per day (bpd), to deal with a pipeline bottleneck that has led to crude building up in storage. Most of Alberta’s oil is exported to the United States.

Russian oil output stood at 11.37 million bpd in November, down from a post-Soviet record of 11.41 million bpd it reached in October, Energy Ministry data showed on Sunday.

“Expectations are for coordinated cuts to reduce an oversupplied market and to realign with slower growth in demand,” said Fitch Solutions in a note on Monday.

Meanwhile, oil producers in the United States continue to churn out record amounts of oil, with crude output at an unprecedented level of more than 11.5 million bpd.

With drilling activity still high, most analysts expect U.S. oil production to rise further in 2019.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 12.79.

The projected upper bound is: 11.50.

The projected lower bound is: 9.80.

The projected closing price is: 10.65.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 18 white candles and 30 black candles for a net of 12 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 24.2825. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 25.37. This is where it usually bottoms. The RSI usually forms tops and bottoms before the underlying security. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 40 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -91. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 36 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

UNTD ST OIL FUND closed down -0.140 at 10.730. Volume was 92% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 91% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
10.630 10.925 10.510 10.730 46,819,788

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 11.20 13.75 13.75
Volatility: 61 42 34
Volume: 43,464,048 30,341,336 22,302,120

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

UNTD ST OIL FUND is currently 22.0% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume out of USO (mildly bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on USO and have had this outlook for the last 32 periods. Our momentum oscillator is currently indicating that USO is currently in an oversold condition.

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