United States Oil (USO) an industry report showed a decline in U.S. crude inventories that exceeded analyst expectations

United States Oil (USO) an industry report showed a decline in U.S. crude inventories that exceeded analyst expectations

United States Oil (USO) an industry report showed a decline in U.S. crude inventories that exceeded analyst expectations

Oil prices rose on Thursday after an industry report showed a decline in U.S.crude inventories that exceeded analyst expectations.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were up 26 cents, or 0.4%, at $59.07 a barrel by 0258 GMT. They closed down 0.6% on Wednesday after hitting their lowest since March 12 at $56.88.

Iranian May crude exports fell to less than half of April levels at around 400,000 barrels per day (bpd), tanker data showed and two industry sources said, after the United States tightened sanctions on Tehran’s main source of income.

Official data released on Thursday in Japan showed imports of Iranian surged more than 800 percent in April, from a year earlier, as refiners stocked up on crude from the country before the U.S. ended waivers on sanctions this month.

Many expect supply cuts led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, known as OPEC+, to be extended in a meeting next month.

Crude prices have risen by about 30 percent since the start of the year when OPEC+, which includes Russia, cut production to reduce a global glut.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.

The projected upper bound is: 12.83.

The projected lower bound is: 11.65.

The projected closing price is: 12.24.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 25 black candles for a net of 1 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 27.2920. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 36.74. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 23 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -126.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

UNTD ST OIL FUND closed up 0.010 at 12.240. Volume was 61% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 5% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
12.030 12.280 11.830 12.240 36,105,872

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 12.70 12.93 12.68
Volatility: 37 29 38
Volume: 25,561,428 22,547,406 25,459,124

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

UNTD ST OIL FUND is currently 3.5% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of USO at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on USO and have had this outlook for the last 17 periods.

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