Twitter, Inc. (NYSE:TWTR) making progress but an awful lot of success is still priced into Twitter stock
I’ve been skeptical about Twitter (NYSE:TWTR) stock for some time now. Admittedly, even though TWTR stock has been range-bound since late July, I’ve been too skeptical towards it, as Twitter stock has rallied over the last two years, roughly doubling during that period.
As I wrote in December, the gains of Twitter stock have been deserved, at least to some extent. The company’s total user base (as represented by MAUs, or monthly active users) hasn’t grown much. But its engagement is up, as shown by increases in its DAUs (daily active users). And Twitter has become a better, more valuable partner for advertisers.
Yet that success hasn’t done much for TWTR stock of late. Its Q3 earnings, which were reported in October, sent Twitter stock soaring. Yet a 10% decline after the Q4 release earlier this month wiped out most of those gains. Twitter stock now actually is down 7.4% over the past twelve months.
There’s one big reason why: valuation. TWTR looked hugely expensive at $45 in June, but even at $31, where it currently trades, it’s not exactly cheap. And with Twitter’s earnings growth likely to be muted in 2019, it’s tough to see how concerns about its valuation will ease any time soon.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 31.92.
The projected upper bound is: 34.66.
The projected lower bound is: 27.70.
The projected closing price is: 31.18.
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 3 black candles for a net of 3 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 30 white candles and 19 black candles for a net of 11 white candles.
A doji star occurred (where a doji gaps above or below the previous candle). This often signals a reversal with confirmation occurring on the next bar.
A long upper shadow occurred. This is typically a bearish signal (particularly when it occurs near a high price level, at resistance level, or when the security is overbought).
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 68.5185. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 47.07. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 35 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -35. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 6 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
TWITTER INC closed up 0.270 at 31.230. Volume was 31% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 20% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
31.230 31.800 30.970 31.230 3,115,842
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 31.72 31.85 34.10
Volatility: 67 71 67
Volume: 4,559,284 4,246,540 4,948,399
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
TWITTER INC is currently 8.4% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of TWTR.N at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on TWTR.N and have had this outlook for the last 25 periods.
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