Twitter, Inc. (NYSE:TWTR) Earnings Preview
The market expects Twitter (TWTR) to deliver a year-over-year decline in earnings on higher revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended December 2019. This widely-known consensus outlook is important in assessing the company’s earnings picture, but a powerful factor that might influence its near-term stock price is how the actual results compare to these estimates.
The stock might move higher if these key numbers top expectations in the upcoming earnings report, which is expected to be released on February 6. On the other hand, if they miss, the stock may move lower.
While the sustainability of the immediate price change and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management’s discussion of business conditions on the earnings call, it’s worth handicapping the probability of a positive EPS surprise.
Revenues are expected to be $997.35 million, up 9.7% from the year-ago quarter.
Estimate Revisions Trend
The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has remained unchanged over the last 30 days. This is essentially a reflection of how the covering analysts have collectively reassessed their initial estimates over this period.
Investors should keep in mind that an aggregate change may not always reflect the direction of estimate revisions by each of the covering analysts.
An earnings beat or miss may not be the sole basis for a stock moving higher or lower. Many stocks end up losing ground despite an earnings beat due to other factors that disappoint investors. Similarly, unforeseen catalysts help a number of stocks gain despite an earnings miss.
That said, betting on stocks that are expected to beat earnings expectations does increase the odds of success.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 32.89.
The projected upper bound is: 34.52.
The projected lower bound is: 32.08.
The projected closing price is: 33.30.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 29 white candles and 21 black candles for a net of 8 white candles.
A falling window occurred (where the bottom of the previous shadow is above the top of the current shadow). This usually implies a continuation of a bearish trend.
Three white candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 58.9506. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 53.63. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 46 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -63. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
TWITTER INC closed down -0.410 at 33.220. Volume was 13% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 50% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
32.670 33.230 32.400 33.220 2,701,953
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 33.67 31.75 36.57
Volatility: 27 24 51
Volume: 3,342,117 3,053,319 2,987,759
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
TWITTER INC gapped down today (bearish) on normal volume. Possibility of a Runaway Gap which usually signifies a continuation of the trend. Four types of price gaps exist – Common, Breakaway, Runaway, and Exhaustion. Gaps acts as support/resistance.
TWITTER INC is currently 9.2% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume into TWTR.N (mildly bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on TWTR.N and have had this outlook for the last 40 periods.
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