The “Trump Trade” is Still in the Market
$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX
It has been difficult for analysts to differentiate “Trump Rally Trades” from those stemming from reflation, and solid global economic indicators that suggest some basis for bond yields and stock values above the lows of Y 2016.
The USD, sometimes a bellwether for US economic confidence, has declined almost 2% in March and is close to erasing a more than 6% rally since President Trump’s election on 8 November.
The Dollar Spot Index, a gauge of the American currency against a basket of global peers, is down 4.9% since peaking at a record on 3 January
The benchmark S&P 500 is nearing its average price for the year, when measured using mean prices paid. Falling below that mark may suggest a fall into losing territory.
Investors are raising short positions on the US benchmark, in anticipation of further losses. Short interest as a percentage of shares outstanding in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) has more than 2X’d this month, to 2.5%, according to data compiled by Markit.
The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) spiked 15% last week, the biggest such gainer on the year.
In Europe, the VStoxx Index rallied 11% Monday to the highest level in a month. Even so, overall levels for the VIX remain relatively low compared with the spikes seen last year.
And while the yield on 10-yr US Treasuries has dipped since touching 2.63% earlier this month, levels remain in the elevated range seen since the November US Presidential election.
- May WTI Crude Oil ended -0.6% to $47.72 bbl
- April Nat Gas ended -1% to $3.05 MMBtu
- May Silver ended +2% at $18.10 oz,
- April Gold ended +0.6% at $1255.60 oz
Monday, the US major stock market indexes finished at: DJIA-45.74 at 20551.05, NAS Comp +11.64 at 5840.38, S&P 500-2.39 at 2341.57
Volume: Trade on the NYSE came in at 990-M/shares excahnged
- NAS Comp +8.5% YTD
- S&P 500 +4.6% YTD
- DJIA +4.0% YTD
- Russell 2000 unch YTD
|HeffX-LTN Analysis for DIA:||Overall||Short||Intermediate||Long|
|Neutral (-0.01)||Bearish (-0.43)||Neutral (-0.11)||Very Bullish (0.50)|
|HeffX-LTN Analysis for SPY:||Overall||Short||Intermediate||Long|
|Neutral (0.06)||Bearish (-0.30)||Neutral (-0.08)||Very Bullish (0.56)|
|HeffX-LTN Analysis for QQQ:||Overall||Short||Intermediate||Long|
|Bullish (0.31)||Neutral (0.11)||Bullish (0.31)||Very Bullish (0.50)|
|HeffX-LTN Analysis for VXX:||Overall||Short||Intermediate||Long|
|Neutral (-0.23)||Neutral (-0.21)||Neutral (-0.20)||Bearish (-0.29)|