The Trump Stock Market Rally Defied the Naysayers in 2017

The Trump Stock Market Rally Defied the Naysayers in 2017

The Trump Stock Market Rally Defied the Naysayers in 2017

$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX

Year 2017 was  full of surprises but market reactions defied conventional wisdom, leaving many a prognosticator 180 degrees out of phase..

Take the global economy; it was strong, yet bond yields went nowhere.

NKorea threatened nuclear war, and volatility in US equities sank to a record 6 weeks later.

Mainstream candidates won major elections in Europe, but a cryptocurrency asset that supporters say will protect from untrustworthy policy makers spiked in value.

President Trump stay in office beyond what his haters predicted and he passed his business and consumer heralded tax reform plan all while the Democrats screamed “the sky is falling.”

So, now as we look forward to what’s ahead in Y 2018, below a very short list of some of the biggest market Winners and Losers last year.

Y 2017 was supposed to be a year in which Wall Street’s optimistic forecasts for the riskiest assets would be doomed if President Trump could not follow through with a pro-growth agenda.

But, concrete progress on tax cuts came just a days before year-end, yet the S&P 500 Index managed to finish the year more than 175 points above the most Bullish price pundit’s target.

Mine was at 2600 for S&P 500 and 25,000 of DJIA, they finished at: DJIA 24719.22 and for S&P 500 2673.61

Note: More real boost is coming from the Trump tax cuts inY  2018.

The US 10-year yield ended Y 2017 with its narrowest trading range since 1965, a reflection of suppressed macroeconomic volatility, predictable policy from major central banks, and an immense appetite for longer-dated debt.

Strategists who thought the post-election jump in yields was an overreaction and foresaw a fairly boring year for the 10-year T-Note.

Toward the end of this year, Wall Street bosses decided to back the unproven, volatile asset: Bitcoin.

Some of Bitcoin’s earliest proponents avoided the temptation to cash out during its astronomical surge. Those who kept the Faith, including: Tyler and Cameron Winkelvoss, Fundstrat’s Thomas Lee, Michael Novogratz, and ex-Legg Mason standout Bill Miller look really smart.

The cryptocurrency also bolstered its credibility in Y 2017, even as its maturity and utility remain open questions.

Two major LaSalle Street exchanges, CME Group Inc. (NASDAQ:CME), and Cboe Global Markets Inc., (NASDAQ:CBOE) gave Bitcoin Bulls an early Christmas present with the start of futures contracts in December, a move that allowed for more institutional access to the asset class.

Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS)  is said to be setting up a trading desk to make markets in digital coins in June of Y 2018. The Bitcoin Bulls are laughing at  those who spent the past few years insisting Bitcoin was a joke.

We cover the world equity, commodities markets, and Forex including Bitcoin daily.

Friday, the major US stock market indexes finished at: DJIA-118.29 at 24719.22, NAS Comp -46.77 at 6903.39, S&P 500 -13.93 at 2673.61

Volume: Trade on the NYSE came in at: 710-M/shares exchanged

  • NAS Comp: +28.2% YTD
  • DJIA: +25.2% YTD
  • S&P 500: +19.4% YTD
  • S&P Midcap 400 Index: +14.7% YTD
  • Russell 2000: +13.4% YTD
HeffX-LTN Analysis for DIA: Overall Short Intermediate Long
Very Bullish (0.61) Bullish (0.35) Very Bullish (0.81) Very Bullish (0.67)
HeffX-LTN Analysis for SPY: Overall Short Intermediate Long
Very Bullish (0.51) Bullish (0.35) Very Bullish (0.60) Very Bullish (0.58)
HeffX-LTN Analysis for QQQ: Overall Short Intermediate Long
Bullish (0.39) Neutral (0.19) Very Bullish (0.50) Bullish (0.47)
HeffX-LTN Analysis for VXX: Overall Short Intermediate Long
Bearish (-0.46) Very Bearish (-0.59) Very Bearish (-0.57) Neutral (-0.21)

Stay tuned in the New Year

 

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Paul Ebeling

Paul A. Ebeling, polymath, excels in diverse fields of knowledge. Pattern Recognition Analyst in Equities, Commodities and Foreign Exchange and author of “The Red Roadmaster’s Technical Report” on the US Major Market Indices™, a highly regarded, weekly financial market letter, he is also a philosopher, issuing insights on a wide range of subjects to a following of over 250,000 cohorts. An international audience of opinion makers, business leaders, and global organizations recognizes Ebeling as an expert.

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