Trump Remarks Weigh on Silver 1 OZ 999 NY (XAG=X)
Silver is flat on Thursday, after sustaining sharp losses on Wednesday. In the European session, silver is trading at $16.86, up $0.03 or 0.18% on the day.
Trump Remarks Weigh on Silver
Silver prices have shown some strong swings this week, treating traders with the strongest volatility we have seen since early November. Silver posted strong gains on Tuesday, but these gains were quickly erased, as the metal declined 1.8% on Wednesday. Much of the volatility is a reaction to comments this week from U.S. President Trump. Silver jumped on Tuesday after Trump suggested that a trade agreement with China might have to wait until after the U.S. election in 2020. However, Trump kept the markets jumping, after saying on Wednesday that the discussions with China were “going very well”. Aside from Trump’s comments on Wednesday, Bloomberg reported that the two sides have made progress on the question of eliminating tariffs.
U.S. Non-Mfg. PMI Points to Expansion
The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI dipped to 53.9 in November, down from the previous release of 54.7 pts. This also missed expectations, but investors were in a forgiving mood, as the reading continues to point to expansion in the services sector. The manufacturing industry has not been able to keep up, as Manufacturing PMI continues to point to contraction.
Silver Technical Analysis
With silver showing significant swings in both directions, the silver price forecast remains neutral, as the metal remains close to the $17.00 level. The 200-EMA and 50-EMA lines remain relevant and could be headed for a crossover. If the 200-EMA does break above the 50-EMA, this would be a bearish signal (“death cross”).
On the upside, the 50-EMA is at 17.24, a shade below the resistance line of 17.25. Above, there is resistance at 17.75. On the downside, the 200-EMA is at 16.56, just above support at 16.50. Below, there is support at the round number of 16.00, which has psychological significance.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
The projected upper bound is: 17.50.
The projected lower bound is: 16.32.
The projected closing price is: 16.91.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 22 white candles and 28 black candles for a net of 6 black candles.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 41.0409. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 9 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 44.69. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 65 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -83. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 16 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 10 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
PREC.M.XAG= closed up 0.110 at 16.930. Volume was 8,900% above average (trending) and Bollinger Bands were 73% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
16.838 17.011 16.777 16.930 50,563
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 16.96 17.35 16.21
Volatility: 19 22 24
Volume: 5,056 1,011 253
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
PREC.M.XAG= is currently 4.4% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect very strong flows of volume out of XAG= (bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on XAG= and have had this outlook for the last 19 periods.
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