Traders Buying Corn, Selling Soybean and Wheat
$CORN, $SOY, $WEAT
Speculators were pegged last week by trade sources as net buyers of Chicago-traded Corn, Soybeans and Wheat, but their Corn views did not budge, and they were net sellers of Soybean and Wheat.
Despite a drop in exportable Wheat supply worldwide, US exporters have yet to cash in on the deal and total sales for the current marketing year sit at a 9-year low.
Investors have adopted the most Bearish stance toward CBOT Soybean since late January, as the ongoing trade dispute between the United States and China, the largest Soybean buyer, China the primary anchor on the market.
In the week ended 4 September hedge funds and other money managers extended their net Short position in Soybean futures and options to 62,749 contracts from 53,642 in the prior week, according to data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Chinese bookings for US Soybeans in MY 2018-19 year that began on 1 September stand at a 13-year low, and the domestic harvest is likely to comfortably exceed records.
Traders are now bracing for the US Department of Agriculture’s monthly supply and demand report due Wednesday Noon EDT (1600 GMT). They expect the agency to place US Soybean yield at a record 52.2 BPA and US ending stocks at a burdensome 830-M bu, above last month’s 785-M bu.
Trade sources suggest that commodity funds were slight net buyers of Soybean between Wednesday and Friday.
In CBOT Corn futures and options, money managers’ net Short position stood at 56,884 contracts through 4 September, just 73 fewer contracts than in the prior week. Funds are notably less Bearish toward the Yellow grain than at the same point in the previous 2 years.
Agriculture analysts expect USDA to place US Corn yield at 177.8 BPA, below its August estimate of 178.4, still above last year’s record. US ending stocks are seen falling slightly to 1.639-B bu from last month’s 1.684-B.
In the week ended 4 September, money managers cut Bullish bets in Chicago Wheat futures and options to 42,766 contracts from 51,180 in the priorweek, and this was against trade predictions that they were buyers during the frame.
CBOT Wheat futures received a boost in the final days of August amid speculation that top supplier Russia may restrict shipments or impose an export duty, but those rumors were put to rest last Monday by the country’s Agriculture Ministry.
Funds’ reaction to the Russian news and subsequent selling activity Tuesday, when trading resumed after the US holiday, was likely underestimated. A ministry official confirmed Thursday that Russia has no plan to impose a tax on wheat exports.
Through 4 September money managers trimmed their net Long position in Kansas City Wheat futures and options to 55,254 contracts from 61,460 in the prior week. They also cut their net Long in Minneapolis Wheat futures and options to 976 contracts from 2,565 a week earlier.
Have a terrific week