Top Vintage & Classic Cars on Auction at Pebble Beach

Top Vintage & Classic Cars on Auction at Pebble Beach

Top Vintage & Classic Cars on Auction at Pebble Beach

$BID, $RACE

If you are a true Vintage and Classic Car buff, this may be your year.

Official estimates for the Pebble Beach automobile auctions this week have set sales totals at $290-M, that down 14% since Y 2016. It’s the 3rd consecutive decliner since a record $403-M record set in Y 2014.

The Key reason for the softening market is that it more difficult to find highly desirable cars in the 1st place, as the supply is very limited.

Over the past 12 months, auction sell-through rates for vehicles worth more than $250,000 has fallen 8.5%, to a 5-year low.

“It’s a much more selective market right now,” said a senior specialist for Gooding & Co. “Over the past few years, for really exceptional cars, the sales are really strong in any price category. People are paying for quality.”

The auctions will begin on Friday in Carmel, California, around the Pebble Beach Concours d’Elegance, which takes place on the lawn Sunday.

Million-dollar Ferraris (NYSE:RACE) and racing Porsche’s will line up on the club’s 18th Fairway for morning judging and afternoon public exhibiting.

The annual event draws car-lovers to the Monterey Peninsula from all over the world.

While cars such as Steve McQueen’s blue-and-orange 1970 Porsche 917K will dominate the headlines, the Key sector to watch this weekend is that of a group of vehicles valued at less than $100,000, the Ford Broncos from the 1970’s, Chevrolet 3100 trucks from the 1950’s, and the BMW 2002.

“That group is booming,” says one insurance industry expert, “That is where you’re seeing older millennials get in for the 1st time, so from that standpoint the market is healthy. It’s not the same [older, moneyed] people churning over the same cars.”

Elsewhere, the 1954-1965 Alfa Romeo Giulietta and 1957-1970 Lancia Flaminia have increased in value over the last year, with little sign of slowing down. Likewise, the late 1980s BMW M6 and early ‘70’s BMW 3.0CSL have heated up as the interest in older Porsche models has cooled.

The decline in overall sales isn’t for lack of buying money.

It is related to the fact that, without a double-digit-million-dollar cars on offer, the overall take will be lower.

This year in Monterey, for example, 94 cars are valued at more than $1-M, down from 104.

Only cars are valued above $10-M, there were 10 last year.

The decrease comes because classic cars of this caliber are a finite resource.

The market topped out in Y 2014, when many high-profile, high-priced cars finally came out of long-term ownership and were sold.

Renewed in long-term ownership, they may not return to market for at least 10 years.

Balance their absence with the relative strength of the EUR Vs SD and the fact that this year, pure investors and speculators have other, potentially more lucrative, places to put their money. We wait, We see.

There will be Tier 1 cars for sale in Carmel thought.

The 5 cars  listed for more than $10-M across the Gooding, Bonhams, Sothebys (NYSE:BID), Mecum, Russo and Steele, and Worldwide Auctioneer sales—last year, Gooding alone had 4 cars take more than $10-M apiece.

So, expect that the Top-10 big sellers will each fetch more than $5-M. And that is fine, auctioneers say.

“We are better off having fewer cars, or less valuable ones, without having unrealistic expectations that would hurt things,” says the global head of auctions for RM Sothebys (NYSE:BID).

All told, Sotheby’s will offer 10 Aston Martins, 18 Porsche’s, and 29 Ferraris over the course of the weekend.

Gooding will offer 27 Porsche’s and 26 Ferraris.

A full 12% of all marques offered this year among all auction houses are Ferraris this year, the largest percentage of any brand. It’s the 1st time in 10 years Ferrari has been the most of the brands to be sold.

A Classic 250GTO Ferrari holds the all-time high record for a car sold at auction at $38-M+.

So, if you love Ferrari, this could be your year.

HeffX-LTN Analysis for RACE: Overall Short Intermediate Long
Bullish (0.34) Bullish (0.25) Bullish (0.35) Bullish (0.42)
HeffX-LTN Analysis for BID: Overall Short Intermediate Long
Bearish (-0.42) Bearish (-0.25) Very Bearish (-0.54) Bearish (-0.47)

Have a terrific weekend.

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Paul Ebeling

Paul A. Ebeling, polymath, excels in diverse fields of knowledge. Pattern Recognition Analyst in Equities, Commodities and Foreign Exchange and author of “The Red Roadmaster’s Technical Report” on the US Major Market Indices™, a highly regarded, weekly financial market letter, he is also a philosopher, issuing insights on a wide range of subjects to a following of over 250,000 cohorts. An international audience of opinion makers, business leaders, and global organizations recognizes Ebeling as an expert.

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